BLAME IT ON THE MJO...
The MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation) after a benign 4 week period has shown renewed convective activity over the Indian Ocean. In 6-10 days that should bring a nice warm-up to the Midwest. However, the short term forecast is for a quick trip through phase 3, which in April is a strong signal for below normal temperatures.
The EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) is shown responding to the MJO cycle by going sharply negative April 25 to May 1st on both the GFS and EURO. Here they are.
Below you can see what the negative phase of the EPO correlates to in April...well below normal temperatures in the Midwest.
The forecast temperature anomalies on the CFSv2 in the day 5-10 period look an awful lot like the April correlation should. That's chilly. Fortunately this should pass as the MJO heads into the warmer phases of 4 and 5 by May 3rd.
Getting back to the topic of chill, I mentioned last night winter doesn't want to go quietly and this pass through phase 3 of the MJO will bring a storm with a wintry component to parts if the upper Midwest this weekend. The track is yet to be finalized but models are converging on a solution that takes the storm across Iowa Saturday. That should keep any snow just north of my area.
The GFS shows this for surface features.
The EURO has this.
Both models have a band of snow north of the center that "could" just clip my northern counties, mainly near the Minnesota border. These are the snowfall forecasts from the GFS and EURO.
The GFS
The EURO
The storm should also bring a wide swath of heavy precipitation, especially north of the low where significant over-running is expected. The GFS has this for total precipitation.
The EURO this.
This is certainly not welcome on the Mississippi in my area where major crests are expected in the next 6-10 days. Already the river in the Quad Cities has been at major flood stage (18 feet) for 31 days, a new record. I would think it be above that for at least another 10 days.
After a break Sunday, another storm brings a rain threat early next week. We'll cross that road in later posts. Meantime, Wednesday looks pleasantly cool with only a slight chance of a few light showers southeast of the Quad Cities. Temperatures look seasonal through Friday. Roll weather...TS
