ROBIN NESTS POINT TO PLENTY OF RAIN....

May 11, 2019

I heard from my weather folklore guru Steve Gottschalk in Lowden Iowa earlier today. Among other things he had this to say:

 

The robins around here are building their nests close to the tree trunks which means a wetter summer. They are also keeping the nests lower in the tree which means plenty of wind, too. I have seen this play out at least 80% of the time.

 

Steve's been keeping tabs on this sort of thing for 50 years and has built an in depth data base which he creates analytics from. When he speaks I listen. In this case I think the robin's are correct about the wet summer. I need a little more explanation on the wind issue but it's intriguing. Thanks Steve.

 

If you are anything like me you're probably waiting for some warmer weather. For good reason too. The first 10 days of the month in Cedar Rapids the average temperature (high and low combined) has come out to 53 degrees. That is the coldest start to the month since 1996...23 years ago!

It's a radical change from last year when the average high the first 10 days was 80.1 compared to this years 62.5. 

There are some signals that there could be a period of warmth coming later next week and into the ensuing weekend. The GFS and its ensembles are the most bullish on this scenario. The next 5 days are cool before it happens. Here's the 500mb jet stream pattern at day 5 followed by the mean 5 day temperature departures.

Now the 10 day 500mb jet and associated temperature departures day 5-10. Note the change in the jet and the warmth building and advancing eastward

Finally here is the day 15 500mb jet position and the day 10-15 temperature departures. A significantly warmer pattern for the Midwest assuming the model is on the right track.

While the EURO does show some warming it does not go as full bore as the GFS so I am not fully on the warm band wagon yet. However, this is the first time I've seen any model show signs of a summery pattern this year. The eastern ridge has been present since last fall and strong amplification is possible, especially as the MJO transitions to a more favorable pattern for warming. 

 

The last issue I will touch on is the weather Mother's day. A closed upper air low at 500mb is projected to dig into Iowa during the day.

My area will be under the cold core of the system ensuring plenty of clouds and instability for showers along with very chilly temperatures. The GFS and EURO both show highs holding in the 50s, about 15 to 18 degrees below normal. Dang!

 

Rainfall is not expected to be heavy in my area with most models showing amounts of 1/10th of an inch or less. Worst case scenario some spotty 0.30" amounts.

 

EURO total rain though Sunday night.

 The GFS for the same period.

However it all ends up, I'm wishing all you moms a happy Mother's day, especially mine who's been a cherished part of my life for 63 years. Thanks for all the love, support, and work on my behalf! Roll weather...TS Such a pretty lady!

 

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© 2019 Terry Swails