© 2019 Terry Swails

A NERVOUS NELLIE, SCARY RAIN NUMBERS...

May 16, 2019

Wednesday was one of those days when you're reminded of why you live in the Midwest. Simply put it was a nearly perfect day with full sunshine, mild temps (mid 70s), low humidity, and light winds. Throw in the fact everything is lush, blooming, and colorful and it was spectacular. Loved it.

 

Thursday we go from Spring to summer with temperatures that will soar into the mid 80s. It should end up about 117 degrees warmer in Cedar Rapids than it was 3.5 months ago. Remember January 31st. That morning an all-time record low of 30 below was set. Bad memory huh! Mt. Carroll, Illinois recorded a new state record at 38 below.

Here's what the 3k NAM shows for highs Thursday.

Moisture will also be on the increase and dew points are shown surging well into the 60s. That along with the warm air will generate significant instability. As a cold front slips south that should be the catalyst to pop some thunderstorms, especially Thursday night in my area. Here's the dew points on the 3k NAM...maybe a couple degrees too high but much higher than anything we've seen so far this year.

The projected CAPE (instability). Plenty of energy for storms.

The Storm Prediction Center currently has my northern counties in a slight risk area of severe weather Thursday.

If storms fire as expected, there's plenty of moisture for heavy rain where storms line up. The Weather Prediction Center shows the north in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on the order of 1-3".

WPC shows this for rainfall through Friday.

Here's where things get really ugly. WPC has rainfall amounts of 3-6" widespread over the next 7 days.

The GEFS ensembles are very concerning out 16 days.

The EURO EPS ensembles are not quite as bad but still problematic.

I'm a nervous Nellie about renewed rises on rivers and streams over the next 1-3 weeks. Not saying conditions are identical or that it will play out the same, but there are similarities to where we were in 1993 and 2008. I will be watching the set-up very closely in coming days!

 

Enjoy are little summer preview, temperatures are going to be playing ping-pong through Sunday. Up, then down, back up, and then down again. We can't keep that warm air locked in just yet. Roll weather...TS

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