© 2019 Terry Swails

AN ACTIVE WEEKEND OF WEATHER...

May 18, 2019

It's worth noting that for more than a year now, the central Midwest has been the focus of an exceptionally wet pattern. Storm after storm have produced soil moisture measurement that are now at some of the highest levels attainable (99% saturation).

Here's the total precipitation over the past year (365 days). Much of my area seeing 55-63".

 The majority of my region experiencing 1.5 to 2 times the normal values of 32-36 inches.

We are entering the wettest time of the year and prospects for sustained dry weather appear minimal in the foreseeable future. The EURO EPS mean rainfall through July 1st is heavy across the Midwest.

Below you see the anomalies running 2-3 standard deviations above normal.

The next 15 days the EURO EPS ensembles depict this for rainfall.

 The GEFS ensembles have this.

To sum it up, it's more of the same. The next wave of rain which will include the possibility of strong storms arrives Saturday. The storm Prediction Center has much of Iowa in a slight risk of severe weather. At this point I'm not very impressed with the overall potential in my area. Something to keep an eye on.

With precipitable water pushing 2" in spots the potential exists for torrential downpours in the stronger storms, especially late Saturday and Saturday night. WPC shows a broad area of the central U.S. in a risk of excessive rainfall. It's possible flash flood watches will be issued for some areas due to the saturated ground.

Also, with the rainy pattern projected to last into June flooding on Midwest rivers and streams is a concern. This is the latest outlook for significant river flooding from the River Forecast Center.

One last note. My crew and I are departing on our 2019 storm chase in a week (May 25-June 1st). We have one open seat left which we would like to fill. We'll be out for a week and it looks very promising for storms. We'll offer you an unbeatable price. If you have questions email carolynswettstone@yahoo.com or tlswails@sbgtv.com. Have a great weekend and roll weather...TS

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