© 2019 Terry Swails

HEAVY RAIN, SEVERE WEATHER TO START THE WEEK...

May 20, 2019

It's been a wild weekend of weather across the country. There was severe weather in the Plains, heavy rain in the central part of the country and SNOW in the far north.

 There's snow in South Dakota where kids are out for summer break. There was also over two inches of snow in Duluth... on May 19th.

Here in the Midwest heavy rain fell through Saturday night. Here's some of the totals from my local area: 

 And then the cool temperatures we had Sunday afternoon behind the cold front...

 Now Monday will be dry and cool once again in the Upper Midwest. Here's the high temperatures:

It will be a different story in the Southern Plains where a significant severe weather event will unfold. Strong thunderstorms will likely produce tornadoes, large hail, and strong winds Monday afternoon and evening. Here's the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

A rare high risk has been issued in Oklahoma and Texas - the first high risk in two years... 

That system will then head up to the northeast into the Midwest Tuesday. The severe weather threat will be lower, but the rainfall threat will be higher. 

 The SPC is watching parts of the central U.S. for some strong storms on Tuesday. Here's the outlook: 

 Some storms south of the warm front will be capable of producing strong winds. The bigger concern will be heavy rain across the Upper Midwest. The ground is saturated... and especially after this weekend's rain there will likely be rises on rivers and creeks. Here's a look at the soil moisture across the country -

 Much of the Upper Midwest is in the 90-95th percentile for soil moisture - basically the ground is completely saturated and cannot take on more water. Here's a look at more rain on the way for Tuesday:

Zoomed in on the GFS:

 Zoomed in on European:

 There could be some locally higher amounts of rain up to three inches in spot. Flash flooding and river flooding going to be an issue. Luckily it will be dry on Wednesday, but there will be some additional showers and thunderstorms Thursday.

 

RK

 

 

 

 

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