DODGEBALL WITH STORMS...
Friday is the start of the long holiday weekend and the beginning of an active period of weather for the central Midwest. Things could get off to a bang Friday as the remnants of Thursday nights storms and a boundary act as a focus for more storms later in the day or evening. If daytime heating is realized instability looks high enough for a few strong storms. Having said that, the new hi-res NAM and 3K NAM have little to show in my area. Most of the storms are off to the east. That's a positive development and here's hoping the trend holds. Other models are more bullish. The set-up will be much clearer by late Friday morning.Whatever happens the Storm Prediction Center has much of my area in a slight risk area as of Thursday night.
After that, the front meanders around the region through Tuesday leading to additional chances of storms and heavy rain. Here's the current risk assessments for those days from SPC. These are all subject to change in coming days.
Again, the biggest concern for me is the potential of heavy rain through the 5 day period.. The Weather Prediction Center shows this for excessive rain potential. The southern parts of my area are the most vulnerable to the higher rain totals.
The Weather Prediction Center shows this for 7 day total precipitation. Most of the central Midwest is shown with 3-5", a few spots up to 7"
The threat for heavy rain eases the middle and end of next week as the strong ridge in the east breaks down and is replaced by a trough...a complete reversal of the pattern we are currently in. Look at the changes at jet stream level.