NOT CUT AND DRY....

We've talked about the pattern calming down and we got a few quiet days around the Midwest this weekend. However, there will still be showers and thunderstorms at times. It is meteorological summer after all (it began June first).

Monday will be dry and warm and it will be muggier than Sunday (dew points will be in the 60s Monday versus the 40s Sunday). Here's a look at the high temperatures to kick off the week -

A disturbance will begin to move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring the next chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

A warm front will begin to lift north across the Midwest late Tuesday through Wednesday and lead to the potential for some strong storms. Here's the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for Tuesday:

Some locally heavy rain will be possible where any thunderstorms develop. The aforementioned front will then stall out and wobble between northern Missouri and I-80... there will be chances for scattered showers and storms near the front. It depends where exactly the front is located and that will have to be determined day by day.

Here's an example of the uncertainty in this week.. Check out the differences in our models here... The European model has much more scattered storms in the Midwest and keeps the heavy rain well to the south through FRIDAY

Here's the SAME time period on the GFS - which is much more aggressive and further north:

The placement of the heavy rain will definitely be a player in what happens along the Mississippi and many other rivers that have been high across the Midwest.

We've got some work to do to determine where the rain will be this week. It's not so cut and dry....

RK