© 2019 Terry Swails

ALL AMPED UP....

June 8, 2019

A strong buckle in the jet stream next week will bring a highly amplified and much cooler weather pattern to the Midwest. This will be a significant change as this Sunday becomes the 6th consecutive day with a high of at least 80 degrees. Friday's 84 degree reading in Cedar Rapids was the 4th in a row here. The last time we accomplished that was mid-September of 2018 (9 months ago).

The buckle I mentioned s shown on the EURO ensemble control next Wednesday evening. 

It brings a very healthy surge of cool air and you can see the departures a very significant next Thursday morning centered on the Midwest.

Next Friday morning the EURO has lows in the mid 40s from eastern Iowa all the way into western Ohio. A little fresh for my blood.

The chill will be most pronounced next Wednesday and Thursday. Here's the 5 day temperature departures for the period June 10-15th.

The strong trough will also bring some very dry air with Arctic origins into the Midwest. These are PWAT's (precipitable water vapor) for next Thursday. Values have been reduced into the range of 1/4 to 1/2".

As you can see that's quite low for mid-June. Many areas only 20-30 percent of normal, lowest in Missouri.

This is a radical change from where the central Midwest has been in recent weeks. It's very good news in that it should see to it that no organized or widespread heavy precipitation falls in the Midwest the next 8-10 days. Here's the 7 day rainfall forecast from the Weather Prediction Center.

The EURO has this for the same 7 day period around Iowa my area.

 

In closing, here's something interesting. It's the December sea surface temperature forecast off the EURO seasonals. What it shows is warm water over the central Pacific depicting the continued presence of an El Nino. The warmth is over the central Pacific basin (not the NW coast of South America) which implies a Modoki type El Nino. 

This and warm waters in the Gulf of Alaska lead the EURO to believe mild Pacific air will dominate Canada and much of the eastern half of the nation during December. Here's the EURO December temperature outlook. Far too early to get into this seriously but as a guy who likes his snow, this is far from what I want to see.

Even worse is the U.S. based CFSv2 which essentially shows no cold air anywhere in North America. Wow!

On that note, I'll call it a post. Enjoy the sunny mild conditions and roll weather...TS 

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