In my last post I mentioned the possibility of a significantly warmer weather pattern towards the end of June. Interestingly, today's long range models have moved in that direction. Here's the 500mb ensembles of both the EURO and GFS
The EURO EPS Thursday June 27th
The GEFS Friday June 28th.
Both models are suggesting a strong ridge developing somewhere over the south-central U.S. You can see in the surface anomalies the existence of high pressure over much of the country east of the Rockies.
Sinking motion under the high would promote significant warming, especially at this time of year when solar heating is at maximum strength.The GFS shows temperatures up to 10 degrees above normal June 28th. That would mean highs in the low 90s over the central Midwest.
Of more importance are the dew points which are shown excessively high around 80 degrees.
With 90 degree highs and dew points that warm the heat index is shown reaching 105-110 degrees over much of my area and the central U.S.
So, does this potential heat have any meat? It's important to stress this is 2 weeks away and much can change, especially on the GFS which is the model showing these extreme values. I think the trend of warmer weather is on track but I'm far from sold on the idea of 80 degree dew points and a 105 degree heat index! That would surprise me. We'll know more in a couple days.
Getting back to the short term and Thursday's weather, look for a very pretty day. After a very fresh start in the 40s, strong June sunshine will warm highs into the upper 60s and low 70s. Overall, a bright and pleasant afternoon. Enjoy and by all means roll weather...TS