It's been no secret flooding has plagued much my local region and the central part of the country dating back to March. Record snowfall this winter, heavy spring rains and rapid snow melt led to many rivers over spilling their banks including the mighty Mississippi where flood warnings have been more prevalent. The map below shows the number of days this year that a National Weather Service office has had at least one active flood warning. The offices that issue warnings along the Mississippi (yellow) have been exceptionally busy.
The Mississippi River reached a record crest in the Quad Cities at 22.7' on May 2nd surpassing the old record established during the Great Flood of 1993. The river also set records for consecutive days above flood stage from Dubuque south to Keokuk. In fact, Burlington is STILL above flood stage and going on 106 days. It is expected to fall below later this weekend. Finally, signaling the end of record flooding.
Now, while there will be chances for rain in my local area Friday and into Saturday, the well advertised upper-level high pressure ridge will continue to amplify and build north over the weekend. As a result, the warm air overhead will lead to "capping" and likely suppress thunderstorm development while the storm track shifts north across the Dakota's and upper Midwest.
A "ring of fire" pattern will set up allowing shortwaves of energy to rotate around the high pressure and on the edge of the heat dome leading to thunderstorms that may produce heavy rains up north in the juicy air mass.
The GFS model shows the bulk of precipitation in Minnesota and Wisconsin through the weekend.
The Euro also keeps much of the rain up north from North Dakota to Wisconsin into Monday morning.
While models show the potential for heavy rain in the northern Mississippi River basin, no significant rises are expected downstream.
The GFS is showing signs of the upper-level ridge breaking down by the middle of next week which could temper the heat a bit by the Fourth of July. It'll also result in a zonal (west-to-east) flow with shortwave energy rippling through bringing rain chances back to the area.
However, the Euro isn't as aggressive in breaking the pattern and keeps the ridge enough in place with toasty temps and the storm track mostly to the north.
In the short term, the heat is locking in place. Temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s into early next week. Factor in the high humidity and the heat index will likely approach 100° through Monday. Night lows will be warm and muggy and generally in the low 70s.
No doubt pools will be the place to be this weekend. Stay cool.