Happy Independence Day! For those counting this is the nation's 243rd observation of the holiday. Here in the Midwest this will be a classic 4th of July with warm humid conditions and highs in the mid 80s...right on the button when compared to normal.
There will also be a 30-40% chance of scattered storms. About 1 in every 3 years experiences precipitation so that too is close to normal. Despite the rain threat, the storms should be widely scattered and generally confined to the late afternoon or early evening hours. If all goes according to plan fireworks should go off without a hitch in most areas.
Overall the pattern doesn't change much the next few days meaning the sticky weather will be with us through Saturday with a few scattered thunderstorms thrown in for good measure. Any storms should be spotty and progressive in nature meaning rains won't last long where they do develop. Lots of dry hours for outdoor activities. Here's the 500mb jet stream forecast off the EURO ensemble control Sunday afternoon.
It's not very evident but a weak front will top the ridge and progress southeast Sunday and Monday. It won't have a great deal of impact on temperatures but it will bring a bit less humidity and eliminate the chance of storms until next Tuesday.
A more significant change takes place later next week when a stronger short wave buckles the jet into northwest flow. The EURO shows the digging Great Lakes trough at 500mb Friday. That's a noticeable difference that will bring a few days of nice fresh conditions to the Midwest.
You can see the cool change centered on Iowa in the 5,000 ft temperature departures below.
Following that, the EURO EPS control builds a massive ridge back into the Midwest towards mid-July.
That would really turn on the heat and humidity and ensure some blistering summer weather for the central Midwest. The core of the heat is parked right over the corn belt July 16th at what's statistically the hottest time of the year.
This is a relatively new trend so I would like to see a few more runs of consistency before getting on this train but I
would certainly say the idea has merit.
While we are on the topic of the long range forecast you can also see the EURO EPS ensemble control has a drier pattern with near to below normal precipitation the next 15 days over my local area. This makes sense if indeed the ridge builds into the Midwest as strongly as the EURO suggests. The 15 day rainfall departure looks this way.
Enjoy the 4th and this special day in our nation's history. We truly do have much to be thankful for. Roll weather...TS