Here we are 9 days into July and so far the month has been warm and on the dry side across much of my area. Here in Cedar Rapids we've only seen 0.38" of an inch of rain (more than 0.80" below normal). Temperatures on the other hand have been about 4.5 degrees above normal with the average high close to 86 degrees. This is a big reversal from what we saw in June. Here's the July rainfall departures.
The actual rainfall amounts over that period.
Going forward the EURO ensembles show the dryness expanding. The coming 15 day rainfall departures look like this. See the below normal bullseye centered on the heart of the corn belt.
Notice the below normal bullseye centered on the heart of the corn belt. This look is created by the emergence of an upper level high that bridges the the center of the nation. Here's the 500mb jet stream flow July 23rd. That type of zonal flow in mid to late July says heat and humidity is coming.
The EURO indicates about an 85 percent chance of 850 temps. greater than 20 degrees C. by early next week.
The temperature departures the next 7 days are plenty warm.
Here's the week 2 period which is even warmer.
This is also the peak tasseling season for corn and the additional moisture from evapotranspiration will ensure plenty of humidity to go along with the heat. As they say, at least you don't have to shovel it! Roll weather...TS