HURRICANES AND TROPICAL RAINS...

July 10, 2019

The hurricane season usually doesn't kick into high gear until mid to late August. This year looks to be an exception as a hurricane/tropical storm appears to be set for landfall in Louisiana late Friday night. The storm is expected to be minimal in strength, at most a CAT 1.

The spaghetti plots showing various model tracks.

The intensity forecasts.

The odds of a tropical storm off the EURO. 

Where things get interesting for the Midwest is after the storm makes landfall. Most models are projecting a turn to the north for a couple days before a gradual drift to the northeast. Below you can see what's left of the center in Arkansas Monday.

From there the EURO takes the remnants into NC Illinois Wednesday.

The abundance of tropical moisture and slow movement of the system will ensure a significant band of rain that could produces excessive rainfall all along the track.The EURO has this for totals over 7 days.The worst of the rain stays just south of my area. That's assuming the storm takes the expected track.

Here's the 7 day departures.

If this scenario pans out my area escapes the heavy rain but does not avoid the warm humid conditions ahead of the storm. In fact, much of my area would reside in an area of subsidence north of the center which would tend to heat up nicely. In the meteogram below you can see how temperatures in Cedar Rapids hold near (or above) 90 for at least 7 days.

So even if the wind and rain of the storm avoids us, we're still impacted in a negative way by the hot steamy weather that results. Can't win for losing! Roll weather...TS

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© 2019 Terry Swails