© 2019 Terry Swails

HIGH, DRY, AND OUT LIKE A LAMB!

July 30, 2019

Over the past 24 hours a cold front has cleared the Midwest on a relentless journey southeast. Along the convergence zone you can see showers and storms lined up from Canada to Texas Monday night.

Here's where the rain was falling at 7:00pm Monday evening.

When the front came through Sunday night it did drop rain. However, it was hit and miss and while some areas got a good drink, others saw little to none.

In my local area it was largely a miss, especially if you were south of HWY 20.

In Iowa City the July rainfall total stands at just 1.05"  That's likely where it will end up with no rain expected the rest of the month. That means this will be the 3rd driest July at the airport. Much of eastern Iowa will end up with 1 to 2" deficits.

For the first time this year, areas of abnormally dry conditions are showing up, especially in Iowa and Illinois.

With another strong high building into the central U.S. this week much of the eastern Midwest will remain precipitation free. Western sections will be on the fringe of the high where it will be a different story as showers and storms bring heavy rains. You can see the the ring of fire and its associated downpours on the EURO rainfall forecast through Sunday. Feast or famine!

You can also see how sharp the cut-off  to the rain is over the state of Iowa.

 

Much of eastern Iowa and points east have air so dry that water vapor is only 20-40% of whats normal.

To the west where the rain falls it's a different ball game.

The high that will create the contrast will keep all of the region cooler than normal as it tugs in fresh air from Canada.

These are the 5 day temperature departures off the EURO.

The GFS is significantly cooler and I think considering the depth of the high and cool air it might be the model that's on the right track.

 

One other nugget to keep and eye on is low temperatures. With very dry air, light winds, and fair skies the potential is there for some parts of the Midwest to get into the 40s for lows Wednesday morning. The high resolution 3k NAM is showing that potential.

So while some parts of the western Midwest will have some soggy weather later this week, eastern sections will have some of the best weather possible for this point in the summer. Here, July will go out high, dry, and like a lamb. Roll weather...TS 

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