© 2019 Terry Swails

GONE WITH THE WIND...

August 2, 2019

Many of you may not realize it but the weather pattern in the Midwest showed extraordinary persistence for the period June 2018 to June 2019. That one year period was the wettest on record for the nation as a whole with some of the biggest departures centered on the corn belt. Here's the total precipitation August 1, 2018 to July 31st. Some amounts up to 65 inches!

Here's the departures for that period which in some places exceeded 30 inches.

This tighter perspective of rainfall totals is centered on Iowa.

These are the departures around Iowa.

As you would expect the soil moisture anomalies were extreme (see below). It presented great challenges to farmers who struggled to get into the fields and complete planting in the spring.

In dramatic fashion the weather pattern has re-structured itself and some parts of the Midwest find themselves in need of moisture replenishing rains. Here's the most recent anomalies showing the dryness that's surfaced during July, especially in Iowa and Illinois.

it's taken a bite out of the "water year precipitation departures" which have shrunk considerably over southern Iowa and central Illinois during the past month..

Making the point are the July rainfall totals in parts of southeast Iowa which under an inch, especially in Cedar, Wapello, and Washington, counties. That's about 3.5 to 4" below normal.Talk about gone with the wind!

The dryness is so significant that abnormally dry conditions are now indicated in some spots. Just 3 months ago none of the region below was indicating dryness. Now 8% of the region has concerns which is up from 5% last week.

The extremes in precipitation and temperatures have impacted Iowa's corn crop which is generally rated in fair to good condition. The overall progress and condition going into August is at the lowest levels since 2015 according to the USDA..

Going forward the dryness that's indicated could be a cause for concern, especially if the EURO is correct in its rainfall forecast. Here's what it shows for the next 10 days.

Essentially the entire Midwest is below normal during that 10 day period. These are the 10 day deficits.

This expanded view shows the extent of the dry weather as it covers much of the northern U.S.

You can see why the pattern is so dry with the 500mb jet stream flow in a highly amplified northwest flow. That really deprives the Midwest of moisture.

This type of configuration will also bring comfortable temperatures. These are the temperature departures in the 5-10 day period. Lots of highs in the 70s during that time frame if the forecast verifies. Thank goodness its not January or we would be in the deep freeze!

One thing I can say with assurance is most areas will have a fantastic weekend. Mostly sunny skies, low humidity, and comfortable temperatures will make for perfect conditions.Two thumbs up to that! Roll weather...TS

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