It's been six straight days without measurable rainfall in Cedar Rapids... and the Quad Cities... and much of the Upper Midwest. Not something all that common during what's typically the rainiest time of year. Luckily there's a chance coming, but not everyone will likely see rain with this cold front Monday.
Here's a snapshot of the Hi-Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR for short) on Monday night -
You can see the scattered nature to the rain, so unfortunately not everyone will get rain. And everyone pretty much needs it. Wherever thunderstorms do develop, though, they will likely produce some locally heavy rain and they may be strong.
Here's the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:
The main threats will be with hail and the potential for strong winds. If these storms do form into lines there could be a straight-line wind threat, but that looks rather low at this time.
Here's a look at the HRRR completely animated through Monday into Monday night -
Here's the HRRR output for rainfall... you can see the trends of the dry spots but also spots that could pick up a decent amount of rain:
Don't pay too much attention to the placement of the heavy rain - it's all going to depend on exactly where the thunderstorms set up. Here's a look at the GFS output for rainfall for comparison:
There's a small chance for some more rain Wednesday night or Thursday but much of the rest of the week will be dry as high pressure moves back in:
Temperatures will get knocked back some and the humidity will be noticeably lower by the end of the week. Dew points will be in the 60s and 70s Monday and likely once again on Wednesday (humid, sticky weather):
By Friday it will be feeling like fall with dew points down in the 50s!
It will feel nicer outside, but that also means dry air and low rain chances. We'll hope for more rain as we head through the month of August.