© 2019 Terry Swails

ONE LAST HEAT WAVE?...

August 10, 2019

Don't look now but we're a third of the way through August and summer will be in the rear view mirror before you know it. In fact, it felt a bit fallish Friday morning with lows that dropped to 48 in Stanley, Iowa (about 30 miles NE of Waterloo). Manchester and Monticello both dipped to 50.

At 10:00 AM Friday the high pressure responsible for the cool lows and beautiful start to the weekend was centered directly over Iowa. Temperatures were only in the upper 60s to low 70s with fair skies. Spectacular!

With all the talk of cool weather I'm shifting gears to what most models are indicating could be a late summer heat wave. Due to the time of year (about 8-10 days from now) it won't be as bad as what it would have been in July but it should have some sizzle. The Weather Prediction Center has already indicated there is a risk of excessive heat over the the central Midwest during the period August 16-22nd.

The official CPC temperature outlook shows the trend for warmth as well.

The 500mb jet stream pattern is certainly favorable for heat if it verifies. The EURO control is very bullish showing this classic heat dome. While I like the idea of some late season warmth I wonder it this is overdone.

The EURO starts the warming in the day 5-10 temperature departures.

The heat really expands in the day 10-15 departures (Aug 19-24th)

 

The GFS is not as hot as the EURO but it does have a similar overall look at 500mb. The big difference with the GFS is the heat dome is centered further SW with a sympathetic trough evident over the NE. 

 Despite that difference it still develops heat showing these temperature departures in the day 11-16 period (August 20-25th).

If the current trends continue to hold we've got some summer sizzle in out future. For now we'll put it on the back burner and let it simmer. Then we'll watch to see if  it goes to a full fledged boil Have a great weekend everybody and roll weather...TS 

 

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