Friday promises some excellent weather around the Midwest with sunny skies and seasonal temperatures. One of the really nice aspects of the day will be the dew points which are expected to hold in the low to mid 50s. Mighty fine for August.
The driving force behind the fine weather is a high pressure that will be centered directly over Iowa.
Beyond Friday the high drifts east and a gradual return of southerly winds takes place. Slowly but surely this will raise temperatures a couple degrees each day into Monday. The increase in warmth and humidity will make for a more uncomfortable end to the weekend.
There is a chance of a few scattered showers and storms Saturday as instability increases, but without much in the way of forcing coverage looks spotty and confined to northern Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Sunday night or Monday there appears to be a decent window for a more generous area of storms along a slow moving disturbance that cuts through Iowa. An MCS is a possibility and both the EURO and GFS have some generous CAPE (convective available energy) Monday. In this case the potential still appears greatest north of HWY 30 where capping aloft won't be the issue it seems to be further south.
Here's the EURO's CAPE
Here's the GFS CAPE. A bit further east indicating faster movement of the front.
Depending on timing there is the chance of severe weather, especially near a triple point and warm front that sets up in the heart of my area. I do expect SPC to eventually issue a risk area for parts of the region Monday once more details regarding the system emerge.
It sure looks like the disturbance is progressive and once the front clears the upper level pattern amplifies once again bringing a couple days of pleasant weather early next week.
By the way, despite some much need rain early this week it was spotty and some places could use more, The latest drought monitor now shows 15 percent of the Midwest is abnormally dry. Three months ago there was no dryness at all. My local area is at the heart of the driest conditions. The new report indicates that parts of eastern Iowa and central Illinois are approaching drought conditions. That's remarkable considering the long duration flooding that took place this spring.
The bottom line in this post is that a changeable pattern lies ahead with Friday's fine weather giving way to warm humid conditions and a chance of storms towards the end of the weekend or early next week. Something for everybody! Roll weather...TS