© 2019 Terry Swails

THE WORST OF THIS WEEK BEHIND US...

August 21, 2019

Strong storms (part of a mesoscale convective system-MCS) pounded parts of Iowa and the central Midwest late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Perhaps as many as 10 tornadoes touched down in central Iowa while other places picked up as much as 5" of rain. Flash flood warnings were issued for areas near and west of Cedar Rapids. The rough weather was predicted with an enhanced risk in effect from SPC when the storms plowed through.

Even before the storms developed SPC did a good job of seeing the threat unfold putting out this mesoscale discussion (MD)  just after 11:00pm. It indicated the threat for strong storms was increasing and so was the likelihood of a watch.

Soon after this a thunderstorm watch was issued. The next MD sent a few hours later shows the watch outlined in blue. You can also see a separate region highlighted for a new watch that was eventually issued further southeast.

Aside from damaging winds, the storms generate prolific downpours.These are some of the rain totals reported from the NWS in the Quad CIties as of 9:00am Tuesday morning.

This rainfall estimate at 2:00pm ( 5 hours later) shows how the rains advanced southeast along with the MCS  during the morning.

Unfortunately some areas around the Quad Cities that are in moderate drought missed out on the beneficial rains.

With the front responsible for the rains pushing southeast high pressure will dominate the central Midwest the rest of the week and much of the weekend. Rain chances in my area look low in coming days as the high brings in a much drier air mass. Only the far south may see a few showers late Wednesday. Look at what happens to precipitable water vapor (PWATs) between Tuesday morning and Friday night. Values go from about 2" to 1/2"

 

Tuesday morning PWATS

 

Friday night PWATS

This is the 5 day rainfall forecast on the EURO

These are the 7 day rainfall departures in the EURO

Temperatures are going to be pleasant as well. The next 5 days it appears highs should remain in the mid to upper 70s. As you can see below in the 5 day temperature departures, that's several degrees below normal.

I guess the bottom line is that the stormy weather for this week is over in my area and many other parts of the Midwest. We've got some fine late summer conditions ahead of us. Roll weather...TS

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