© 2019 Terry Swails

HE GIVETH AND HE TAKES AWAY...

August 24, 2019

The rains that have fallen the past couple of weeks have been scattered in nature which is very typical for late summer. The random nature of the coverage has brought beneficial rains to some and disappointment to others. So, while drought conditions eased in some areas, they worsened in others. Here's the latest drought outlook.

You can see where conditions have improved (green) or deteriorated (yellow) over the past 2 weeks.

These are the precipitation departures over the past 2 months. In some parts of central, SE Iowa and WC Illinois deficits of 4 to more than 6" are found.

Below you can see  the deficits of July compared to August. There was some improvement in the worst areas but not enough to compensate for the extreme dryness of July.

 

July percent of mean

 August percent of mean to date.

Dry times are no stranger to the Midwest. In this time series you can see in Iowa the regular cycles of dry and wet weather since 2008

This is the same time series for Illinois.

Looking ahead most of the long range outlooks continue the trend of drier and cooler than normal conditions into the fall. Below the precipitation outlook through September 4th.

The temperature outlook for the same period.

The climate Prediction Center continues to show the tendency for at least small pockets of drought through November over parts of the region currently experiencing it. Personally I think this has the potential to expand and cover more of the central Midwest and Great Lakes than shown.

This soil moisture outlook has the wettest conditions and soils to the west and south of my area through the end of November.

Here are some 3 month forecasts from CPC for long term precipitation in 3 month increments. 

Just looking at the short range models, it appears a quiet dry weekend is ahead with very comfortable temperatures. Basically, more of the same. Here's the EURO rainfall forecast through Monday.

 

The forecast highs Saturday.

The forecast highs Sunday.

 My friends, the last full weekend of August is going out with class. Enjoy and roll weather...TS

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