© 2019 Terry Swails

HOLIDAY WEEKEND ISSUES?....

August 27, 2019

Monday was a happy day for some who needed rain in parts of the Midwest. A convectively induced disturbance known as an MCV kicked of showers and storms that dumped heavy and much needed rain on parts of SE Iowa and WC Illinois. Keokuk had 1.84" of rain and there were likely spots in that region that had more than 2.00"

 Here's another perspective showing the sharp cut-off to the rain line on the NW flank of the MCV.

The rain was a welcomed commodity in those areas as abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions persist.

The satellite shows the MCV punching east through central Illinois during the day Monday.

At 500mb (jet stream level) you can see the lead MCV in Illinois followed by a strong upper air trough digging into the northern Plains.

The two chunks of energy essentially phase over the next 24 hours creating this impressive trough Tuesday night. A big old bowling ball!

Get a load of the cool air that gets tugged into the Midwest Wednesday.

It's possible highs may not get out of the 60s Wednesday afternoon. Another cool push is projected to arrive in the Midwest late Thursday. Ahead of it highs will surge towards 80 Thursday and then dive again on Friday. These are the lows the GFS has Friday morning. Lots of 40s north to near 50 south.

Highs again are shown dipping into the upper 60s to near 70 Friday. That's a good 10 degrees below normal.

Once the cool air and NW flow is established Tuesday, the pattern should be fairly dry the remainder of the week. After that there's a fight between the GFS and EURO on a weekend rain maker.  The GFS has this for rainfall from the weekend system.

 

The EURO on the other hand shows a real soaker for the heart of my area with 1 to 2" totals. 

It's a little early to split hairs on what happens this early in the game but keep in mind the potential exists for parts of the holiday weekend to be cool, damp, and dreary. We'll have a better handle on the situation by the middle of the week. Roll weather...TS

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