It's a big holiday weekend (summer's last hurrah) and there's plenty of challenging weather, both locally as well as in the tropics. So let's get to it.
Starting with my area and the central Midwest, the trends have been for improved weather compared to what models were indicating 2-4 days ago. Tuesday the Weather Prediction Center was showing this for rainfall on Saturday,
Today, high pressure is now shown making a deeper push into the Midwest creating a drier solution with the best moisture and forcing much further south. As a result, rainfall looks very light and spotty in nature, if it even develops. About the only model to show much this far north is the EURO and even that is extremely meager. Look at the change in the WPC rainfall forecast. I think most areas will see little if any rain during the day Saturday.
Needless to say this bodes well for a much better day of weather Saturday. Some periods of clouds still appear to be on tap but they should be thin enough for some incoming solar radiation (maybe even some breaks for sunshine) and that brings the likelihood of warmer temperatures. Without the rain cooled air of earlier solutions, readings should be about 10 degrees warmer leading to highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The 3k NAM shows this for highs Saturday.
I'm still concerned that clouds could be a bit more expansive keeping readings on the cooler side. However, it's hard to argue with the trends so lets hope they hold up and we can pull out a respectable Saturday.
Some lingering clouds and spotty showers may linger into Sunday morning but after that skies should break out in the afternoon and the rest of the holiday weekend gets better. Highs are expected to range from the mid 70s Sunday to the low 80s Labor Day!
That brings me to the other BIG weather story and that's the potential for Dorian to hit the Florida peninsula as a major hurricane (Perhaps a CAT 4) later in the weekend. 24 hours ago the situation looked very ominous for the Florida coast, especially near West Palm Beach. Now models have shown a significant shift east and north on the track that may keep Dorian out to sea saving Florida from what could be a catastrophic storm. Notice the official track of the storm has now been shifted east with the system turning north near the Florida coast before making landfall. With the eye staying out to see that could save lives and billions of dollars in damage.
Here are the Spaghetti plots late Friday night showing the various solutions of individual models.
This eastward trend in track is hugely important as many models have the storm holding Dorian as a major hurricane with near CAT 4 status (winds of 140-150 mph) just off the Florida coast late in the weekend.
As you can see in the satellite image Friday night the storm has now entered an environment where it can now intensify and you can clearly see the concentric eye. The storm has now attained winds of 140 mph which makes it a dangerous category 4 hurricane moving west northwest.
As we all know forecasts can turn on a dime and with the margin of error so slim, we can only hope things work out for the best here in the Midwest as well as for our friends in the southeast. Have a terrific holiday weekend and roll weather...TS