Hurricane Dorian made two landfalls on Sunday in the Bahamas as the second strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin. Dorian was packing winds of 185 mph sustained and gusts up to 220 as it battered the islands. The 185 mph sustained winds makes it the second strongest hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean on record, 5 mph behind Hurricane Allen (190 mph, 1980).
Strong winds, storm surge, heavy rainfall has been causing damage across the Bahamas as Dorain slowly moves to the west. The next question is... where does it go next? There will be a northern turn that happens, but the question has been when does that happen..
Here's a look at a spaghetti plot - a collection of a bunch of models showing the possible outcomes with Dorian -
The storm could make landfall in Florida or come very close to the coast (still causing storm surge, high winds, heavy rainfall), or make landfall in Georgia or the Carolinas. Regardless, there will be impacts in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States. This is the latest as of Sunday evening so there WILL still be changes to this forecast.
Closer to home, far removed from the tropics, we have been experiencing some nice, fall weather in the Upper Midwest. Here's a look at Sunday's high temperatures -
It will be warmer and more humid Monday ahead of a cold front.
There may be a few scattered showers during the day, but as instability grows thunderstorms will be more likely in the evening and overnight hours. There's still some uncertainty on how the storms evolve, but here's a look at one model's output - the hi-resolution NAM.
Thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday by the end of the loop storms have formed into a line through Missouri, Illinois and Indiana by Tuesday night. If storms do form, they may be strong. Right now the greatest chance on Monday is in Minnesota.
The main threats would be strong winds and hail. It will remain warm and muggy on Tuesday and a few strong storms will be possible then as well. Here's a look at Tuesday's highs -
Anddd behind the front we're back to fall by Wednesday afternoon.
There will be plenty of ups and downs as we continue through September.
I'm also thinking of everyone in the Bahamas and southeast coast as they brace for Dorian. We can just hope that everyone is prepared as an incredibly powerful hurricane moves through the Atlantic Ocean...