© 2019 Terry Swails

SUMMER IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR...

October 9, 2019

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Here's a little shot for you from Mt. Washington. NH. It's the highest peak in the NE United States at 6,288 feet. You can see it was pretty tranquil there today but usually that's not the case. Winds are a constant here and for those unaware, the station recorded winds of 231mph April 12, 1934. That's still the highest measured wind speed outside of a tornado or tropical cyclone. A very interesting place to visit if you get a chance. It won't be long before those rocks are covered by snow and after that they won't see the light of day until at least April, some years May.

Here's a question for you. Does this October remind you of anything? How about a little help...think temperatures. These are the departures so far in 2019. Compare this to the same period in 2018. There you go, pretty close huh.

2018

Looking at the images you can see the warmth's location is associated with a persistent ridge over the east and the cold is tied to a trough over the west. This pattern has been locked in so long now you can see how the departures since the beginning of the year approximate where we are now. Notice too how in North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida this is the warmest year ever through September. In South Dakota it's the 15th coldest.

This set-up remains in effect through Thursday as a whopper of an early Fall storm revs up over the Rockies. This is the 500mb jet Thursday evening.

It results in a Thursday temperature departure that looks like this.

At least for a while the ridge is going to break down and the weather the next week takes a dramatic turn to the other side of the pillow as much cooler air surges south on Friday. Look what's going down in the Dakotas. This is the kind of stuff that fascinates me.

 

Highs Tuesday...in the 80s in SC South Dakota. 84 Near Pierre.

Lows next Monday. 17 around Pierre. 67 degrees colder. 

Add a little wind and you get wind chills down around 8. It will feel almost 80 degrees colder. WHAT!!!

Now some icing on the cake. At a 10:1 ratio (which is too high) some places are showing 40" of snow near or west of Grand Forks. I would cut that by 15-20" I still think there will be some spots with over 24". Would I love to be there for that. Any takers...

10 Meter winds are up there around 50-55 mph. This could be a very serious storm with widespread power outages and tree damage. You are going to be hearing a lot about this. I've been saying for days this could be historic for the area and today the Bismarck NWS office used the word in its headlines!

The first impacts in my area will be gusty winds and then showers and perhaps some thunderstorms late Wednesday night lasting occasionally into Thursday night. The Tuesday night NAM came in very wet compared to previous runs. It might be a bit high but there will be ample moisture so I would not look the other way. 

Later Thursday night a rip roaring cold front blitzes the area and cuts of the moisture and abruptly ends the rains. Water vapor levels (PWAT's) go from a max of 1.4 to about 0.20 in short order.

That's the type of set-up that also drives winds. Thursday through Saturday winds of 20 to 40 mph will blast the region. First from the south and then the west as the front passes. These are 10 meter max gusts.

Thursday evening temperatures will be well into the 60s but by morning will fall into the upper 30s to near 40. Readings will hold there most of the day Friday. The NAM has this for readings at 7pm Friday.

Saturday morning lows should be near or a bit below freezing.

Wind chills will be in the upper teens to low 20s. It's coming Amigo!

There's likely to be plenty of wrap around low clouds Saturday with cold air aloft some snow showers could spring to life, especially in the north ( up around HWY 20 and points north). All I can say is enjoy your Wednesday cause you're gonna get slapped in the face and rear end come Friday and Saturday. Summer is in the rear view mirror! Roll weather...TS

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