© 2019 Terry Swails

A WIND BLOWN CHILL BACK WITH US TODAY...

October 22, 2019

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TUESDAY'S FEATURE POST

 

Gale force winds have zinged parts of the Midwest since early Monday. Gusts overnight of 60-65 mph were reported from NW Iowa into western Minnesota. The deep low pressure Monday night was situated near Minneapolis. The strongest winds were found west and south of the center.

The deep surface low responsible for the tight pressure gradient and winds will only slowly drift northeast the next 24 hours. That means the winds will remain gusty into tomorrow. Much of the Midwest and my area will see gusts in the range of 30 to 35 mph, maybe 40 in my western counties in Iowa.

The NWS in Des Moines showed the strength of the winds in NW Iowa approaching 70 mph Monday night. That's a heck of wind and I would estimate less than 5 percent of all storms reach such lofty levels.

These are the wind associated advisories in effect into Tuesday. These could be altered by the time you read this depending on how speeds respond during the night and early morning hours.

Temperatures out in central Iowa Monday night were 14-16 degrees colder than just 24 hours ago.

That colder air is on the march and today with those whistling winds and readings in the 40s wind chills will be in the low to mid 30s most of the day. Here are the mid-day projections.

Throw in some light showers Tuesday morning, especially across the north and you have yourself a pretty tacky Tuesday. Below you can see the instability showers rotating around the upper air low.

Another disturbance will quickly rotate SE behind the first one on Wednesday. It's a weak clipper with minimal forcing and moisture but most models are cranking out clouds and some light showers, possibly mixed with some snow near and north of the Minnesota border. The EURO shows amounts of only a few hundredths of an inch.

This reinforces the cooler air and temperatures will remain crisp and well below normal for several days. Highs should range from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south right on through Friday. These are the 5 day departures through Saturday morning.

Beyond all this the models are rather noisy with regards to phasing and what that means for the weekend. In general it seems that both the EURO and GFS are coming into agreement showing a split flow for a few days commencing Saturday. That's important because it brings in some warmer air for the weekend.

 

Where disagreement shows up is with a southern stream system that the EURO shows bringing some light rain Sunday. The GFS is further south and dry. With the models struggling mightily with the energetic pattern I don't feel comfortable with either solution at this distance but I am leaning more towards the wetter and further north solution of the GFS. It's something to keep an eye on going forward.

 

Another issue surfaces next Tuesday. The EURO phases the northern and southern streams and spins up a healthy surface low that tracks through Iowa.

Look at the snow that would generate out west.

The GFS is un-phased and unimpressed with any surface development. It shows high pressure and no sign of a storm.

However, it is much colder and in an entirely different way eventually spits out this for snow before Halloween.

What we have here is a failure of our models to communicate. Again I just think there is a lot of uncertainty and challenges with how modeling is handling the abundant energy in the pattern. It's going to take some time to get this straightened out. I do think there is a good chance temperatures turn cold again for the period October 30-31st. Spooooky...

 

OK, that's all I have for now. Hold onto that hat and as always, roll weather...TS

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