© 2019 Terry Swails

I'M DREAMING OF A WHITE HALLOWEEN...

October 24, 2019

 

This is the 2nd in what will be a series of posts on the potential of hazardous weather in the Midwest just before Halloween. This would include 2 threats, cold and snow.

 

We are still a good 5 to 7 days before any issues so a great deal can change. This post is only meant to be an early indicator of significant trends pointing out the concerns and timing. It is not a forecast. Do not focus on snow amounts even though I will show some, they are going to change and are nothing more than model output at this point, what we call guidance.

 

Right now, there are two camps in the models during the period Oct 29-31st. There's the GFS which shows little if any snow, but plenty of cold. Then there's the EURO and CANADIAN GEM which show an abundance of both. As it stands now, I'm in the later camp which as of today shows two periods where there could be accumulating snow. I will show you the snowfall forecasts from both models to get the ball rolling. What I'm showing is total snowfall from the 2 systems combined.

 

Here's the EURO, it has moved further SE than a couple days ago and now encompasses more of my area.

Here's the GEM (Canadian) It has a similar look with a few variations.

Both models are very bullish on snow prospects. Then there is the GFS which has nothing. Check it out.

I keep waiting for something to give between these 3 models but so far, I can't get one to budge as much as an inch. The ensembles, which in the case of the EURO is the mean of 51 member solutions is my preference.

 

Should the snowy output of the EURO and GEM come to fruition this would have the makings of a historical snow coming in the month of October. It certainly needs to be monitored closely going forward. Having said that, I will feel more comfortable when all the models have settled on one solution and general track. I want to stress right now we are still in a low confidence position. Don't rush out and by milk and bread. This game has a long way to go but I do think the potential is there for some part of the Midwest to see significant snow.

 

Wherever it does accumulate (still not a given) it has the potential to be darn cold. Halloween could be white and very fresh for some. The EURO has this for trick or treat temperatures.

With wind chills that look like this.

Once again I want to stress that what I'm doing here is pointing out what seems to be a credible threat. It will do what it will do and even if it doesn't pan out, you will know why first right here on TSwails.

 

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