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THURSDAY'S FEATURE POST
To get this post started, I will start with the fact there's a major fight going on with the models that has significant implications for the Midwest next week. It has to do with the distribution and phasing of energy within the jet stream. Below I'm going to show side by side the EURO VS GFS at 500mb the evening of Tuesday October 29th. There a two very important differences.
The position of the mean trough.
This is a big deal. The EURO has it centered over the Rockies with a strong ridge over the east. The EURO is sending moisture into the Midwest which puts it squarely in the storm track. The GFS has already knocked the east coast ridge down and the mean trough is over the Ohio Valley sending cold dry air into the Midwest. A far less stormy pattern.
The vorticity (energy) on the EURO is still digging southward into the mean trough out west. That implies at least 2 pieces of energy ejecting into the Midwest the 29th-31st, each with the potential to bring precipitation. The GFS on the other hand has a more sheared look and it does little with surface development or storminess.
Below you can see the dramatic difference in water vapor available for precipitation.
For my money, I just cant see why the GFS is kicking the energy out of the west so fast. I like the slower EURO and I think it's going to win this battle. So what does that mean? First and foremost, a very challenging forecast next week. With such a potent trough and vast amounts of energy, it's hard to know how it will all come together at this distance. However, I do think the EURO might have the right idea bringing two waves into the Midwest.
The first would most likely be a rain maker for my area as it comes up over eastern Iowa.
It then drags in the cold air that the second wave rides northeast Wednesday night. This is the one that could bring snow to the pumpkins in my area Wednesday night October 30th. Here is what it looks like on the EURO ensemble control.
For the two systems combined the EURO paints this out for snow.
Here's a larger perspective. Just keep in mind no snow forecast is reliable at this distance. All we are concerned about now are the trends and where they show the overall potential.
After this the flood gates are open for some very potent wind driven cold air. For trick or treating it's very possible temperatures could be in the 20s with wind chills in the teens. The EURO has this for lows Friday morning November 1st.
The accompanying wind chills.
The Climate Prediction Center has a high risk of hazardous temperatures over all of the central U.S. Halloween
Well, as you can see there's some big ticket weather on the table for next week. I've got my work cut out for me. Meanwhile, Thursday will be a quiet day with mixed sun and clouds and chilly highs in the 40s. Until next time, roll weather...TS