© 2019 Terry Swails

THERE COULD BE SNOW ON THE PUMPKINS...

October 24, 2019

Well, we now need only 171 more subscribers to meet my fund raising goal. I'm very grateful to those of you who have dug deep and paid the voluntary subscription fee to keep TSwails running. Your generosity is hugely appreciated. It's my goal going forward to work full-time on the site, build it, add new features, and be my own boss! If you can, please consider a voluntary subscription to TSwails of $12 dollars a year ($1 dollar per month). The future of the site is dependent on your contributions. We hope you see the value and hard work that exists in the daily content. There are new features currently in development that I think you will enjoy. Thank you so much for your consideration and help. To subscribe click on the secure green box below.

THURSDAY'S FEATURE POST

 

To get this post started, I will start with the fact there's a major fight going on with the models that has significant implications for the Midwest next week. It has to do with the distribution and phasing of energy within the jet stream. Below I'm going to show side by side the EURO VS GFS at 500mb the evening of Tuesday October 29th. There a two very important differences.

The position of the mean trough. 

 

This is a big deal. The EURO has it centered over the Rockies with a strong ridge over the east. The EURO is sending moisture into the Midwest which puts it squarely in the storm track. The GFS has already knocked the east coast ridge down and the mean trough is over the Ohio Valley sending cold dry air into the Midwest. A far less stormy pattern.

 

Digging energy.

 

The vorticity (energy) on the EURO is still digging southward into the mean trough out west. That implies at least 2 pieces of energy ejecting into the Midwest the 29th-31st, each with the potential to bring precipitation. The GFS on the other hand has a more sheared look and it does little with surface development or storminess.

 

Below you can see the dramatic difference in water vapor available for precipitation.

For my money, I just cant see why the GFS is kicking the energy out of the west so fast. I like the slower EURO and I think it's going to win this battle. So what does that mean? First and foremost, a very challenging forecast next week. With such a potent trough and vast amounts of energy, it's hard to know how it will all come together at this distance. However, I do think the EURO might have the right idea bringing two waves into the Midwest.

 

The first would most likely be a rain maker for my area as it comes up over eastern Iowa.

It then drags in the cold air that the second wave rides northeast Wednesday night. This is the one that could bring snow to the pumpkins in my area Wednesday night October 30th. Here is what it looks like on the EURO ensemble control.

For the two systems combined the EURO paints this out for snow.

Here's a larger perspective. Just keep in mind no snow forecast is reliable at this distance. All we are concerned about now are the trends and where they show the overall potential.

After this the flood gates are open for some very potent wind driven cold air. For trick or treating it's very possible temperatures could be in the 20s with wind chills in the teens. The EURO has this for lows Friday morning November 1st.

The accompanying wind chills.

The Climate Prediction Center has a high risk of hazardous temperatures over all of the central U.S. Halloween

Well, as you can see there's some big ticket weather on the table for next week. I've got my work cut out for me. Meanwhile, Thursday will be a quiet day with mixed sun and clouds and chilly highs in the 40s. Until next time, roll weather...TS

Share on Facebook
Share on Twitter
Please reload

ARCHIVED POSTS
Please reload

RECENT POSTS

November 17, 2019

November 15, 2019

Please reload