© 2019 Terry Swails

HALLOWEEN WINTER STORM UPDATE

October 25, 2019

 

This is the 3rd in what will be a series of posts on the potential of hazardous winter weather in the Midwest just before Halloween. This includes 2 threats, cold and snow.

 

We are still a good 4 to 6 days out before any issues so specifics are still in doubt. This post is meant to be an early indicator of significant trends that point out the early concerns and timing. It is not a forecast. Do not focus on snow amounts even though you will see some, they are going to change and are nothing more than model output at this point, what we call guidance.

 

As was the case Thursday, there are two camps in the models during the period Oct 29-31st. There's the GFS which shows little if any snow, but plenty of cold. Then there's the EURO and CANADIAN GEM which show an abundance of both. As it stands now, I remain in the later camp which as of today shows two periods where there could be accumulating snow, or at least a rain snow mix changing to snow. Lets start with Friday's latest snowfall forecasts. What I'm showing are the total amounts from the 2 systems combined. The first roughly Tuesday night, the second later Wednesday night and Thursday.

 

The EURO

The EURO EPS ensemble control

The Canadian GEM

 And here's the GFS, it went from nothing yesterday to this on today.

The GFS does not show the second potentially stronger disturbance as it bodily kicks the mean trough east out of the Rockies after Tuesday. The EURO and GEM do not resulting in a cold and active pattern into Friday. It seems with time the operational GFS is slowly catching up with the trends of the other two models. Confidence on accumulating snow in some part of my area and the central Midwest has increased today. Should the snowy output of the EURO and GEM come to fruition this would have the makings of a historical snow in my area coming so early in the season.

 

Again, it's too early to get bogged down with amounts and location but be advised I've not seen anything today to take the threat off the table, if anything its grown in that we are 24 hours closer to the event.

 

The other factor to take into account is the cold air that moves into the Midwest early next week. It could be near record levels, especially if a decent snow cover is established. These are the 7 day departures October 28-November 5th.

 Next Sunday looks very chilly on the EURO with a one day departure that looks like this.

Halloween will be impacted by cold temperatures and potentially snow. It's not going to be a treat for the little goblins this year. More to come. Roll weather...TS

 

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