SNOW IS COMING....
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A storm is on the way that will deliver the first accumulating snow event for many of us in my local area. I wanted to start off with a few stats about snow this time of year.
The first measurable snowfall (a tenth of an inch, 0.1") typically happens around mid November for most of my local area. However it has happened as early as September. (There was measurable snow on September 26th, 1942 in Cedar Rapids). The first inch of snow typically happens around late November to early December, but has happened earlier. (Cedar Rapids and the Quad Cities both had an inch of accumulation on October 18th, 1972). There have been several Octobers with measurable snow and a few years with more than an inch. In October 1997 Cedar Rapids had a storm produce 7" of snow. The Quad Cities had 6.6" in October of 1967. So it's not out of the question for there to be snow in October and several inches at that! It just isn't all that common.
Now onto the forecast... It will be a cloudy and cool day Monday with temperatures around 10 degrees below normal:
Precipitation will move in primarily after 7-8 pm Monday night. There may be a period of a rain/snow mix before changing over to all snow. The initial snowflakes likely won't stick due to the warm surface and road temperatures.
Snow will be most likely in Nebraska, Iowa, northern Missouri, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and northwestern Illinois. A rain/snow mix to all rain will exist to the south.
Snow (and rain) will continue through the night and wind down early Tuesday morning, likely ending for most of us by 9 am.
Here's a look at the latest snowfall totals from the models. Once again this is not a forecast, but an idea of what the models are saying....
The hi-resolution NAM:
The GFS:
The European:
Some of these snowfall totals may be a little high, considering the time of year and how warm the ground is. You can see the lower forecasts reflected in the National Weather Service forecasts. Here's a look at some of those forecasts from the NWS -
If there is consistent, moderate snow falling then 2-3" of slushy accumulation will likely happen in grassy and elevated areas. The impacts to the roads will likely be quite minimal since road temperatures are warm, but there could certainly be some slick spots especially overnight Monday into Tuesday morning.
There will then be another system that delivers more snow Wednesday night into Thursday... a frightful sight - snow on Halloween!
There's a lot more uncertainty with the details of this system at this point, but we'll continue to update you on the track and snowfall totals.
What continues to remain certain is the cold. Temperatures will be below normal each day this week and temperatures will remain below normal into the first week or two of November -
Welcome to winter... a little early!
RK
