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UPDATE ON TONIGHT'S SNOW AND THE UPCOMING HALLOWEEN EVENT
Here we are, two days from what could be a decent October snow event and wouldn't you know it, there's significant model differences between the GFS and EURO. I don't know what it is about my area but it always seems these types of issues surface. To get the ball rolling here's the 18z model runs showing the GFS (left) VS the EURO (right).
As much as I would like to see the GFS verify, I think it's on some serious steroids. It just seems overdone on moisture, intensity, and too far northwest. I can't say that for sure but it's the GFS and that's usually all you need to know. Until I see some concrete evidence otherwise, I'm gonna play this one very conservative and very much on the side of the EURO. That does mean some additional snow for my area Wednesday night and Thursday but the amounts will likely stay in the range of 1-4", maybe a couple 5" totals. As far as the location, again I think the EURO is closest to reality showing SE Iowa and much of northern Illinois as the favored spots. Fortunately we have another day to fine tune the details. Stand by on that.
Meanwhile tonight's snow is trying to come together as we speak. Here's the latest composite radar showing rain and snow that will change to all snow before ending by daybreak.
The NWS in the Quad Cities put this out early in the evening showing timing and amounts. The fast movement should keep accumulations to around 1 to perhaps 2", although a little banding in spots could yield a few 3" totals.
There you go, the flakes should start flying in the west shortly and spread east by midnight. Happy first flakes and roll weather...TS