© 2019 Terry Swails

THE NEXT SNOW UP. WHEN AND WHERE...

October 29, 2019

A message of thanks from Terry,

Hello everyone. Slowly but surely I'm getting the subscribers together to meet our fund raising goals. (only 122 more to go). As you know this is a voluntary subscription fee and it's very special when any of you digs into your funds out of respect for the product. Going forward, my goal is to be my own boss and control my future without the demands and constraints of the corporate world. I want to grow this site, add new features, and share my passion for weather with you. So it is that I ask for a voluntary fee of $12 dollars a year ($1 dollar per month) to make it happen. The future of the site is dependent on your contributions. We hope you see the value and hard work that exists in the daily content. Rest assured there are new features that are in development that I think you will enjoy. Thank you so much for your consideration and help. To subscribe click on the secure green box below. Roll weather...TS

UPDATE ON THE HALLOWEEN SYSTEM:

 

Nothing like a sticky wet snow to transform the world around you. Here in Cedar Rapids we had 3.3" which is the earliest snow here since 1996. It was also the earliest 1" of accumulation since 1997! Here's some totals from around my area from the NWS in the Quad Cities. 

More totals from the Iowa Mesonet. 4" from "wild" Steve Gottschalk in Lowden, one of the largest totals anywhere.

Some specific numbers from around the region. First the focus on Iowa.

Now Wisconsin and NW Illinois.

This is the high-res GOES satellite showing the snow on the ground around 11:00 am.

The next storm is already getting organized out west and promises to bring more snow back to parts of the area, especially Wednesday night and early Halloween day. My goal today was to find more consistency with this system and that seems to be the case with this mornings model runs. Especially with the GFS ensembles and the EURO. Here's the snowfall forecast from both models. First the EURO operational.

Here's the EURO EPS ensemble control.

Now the GFS ensemble known as the GEFS

The odd man out is now the operational GFS which remains the heaviest and furthest northwest. However, it has come back to earth since yesterday which I had a pretty good feeling it would. It has lowered its amounts and made a southward shift more in line with the EURO.

This is a snowfall outlook from the NWS in Des Moines and it seems reasonable. In fact it's very comparable to the EURO so that's where I'm leaning.

The 12z EURO won't be out for a couple of hours and as soon as I can get to that I will push it to you later this afternoon. 

 

As for timing, some snow is possible as early as late tonight in my far southern counties but that's in far SE Iowa and WC Illinois. That slowly pushes northward Wednesday and gets into more or my area Wednesday night and early Thursday. We'll see if the new EURO has anything interesting later this afternoon. I think the bottom line is that the area southeast of a line from Lamoni, to Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, and on to Madison stands the best chances of 3-6" accumulations. Near and southeast of the Quad Cities maybe a bit more. Until then, roll weather...TS

 

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