© 2019 Terry Swails

HALLOWEEN WINTER STORM...

October 30, 2019

A thank you from Terry,

 

Hello everyone. I've managed to get a few more subscribers together as the push continues to meet my fund raising goal. (only 117 more to go). As you know this is a voluntary subscription fee and it's very special when any of you digs into your funds out of respect for the product. Going forward, my goal is to be my own boss and control my future without the demands and constraints of the corporate world. I want to grow this site, add new features, and share my passion for weather with you. So it is that I ask for a voluntary fee of $12 dollars a year ($1 dollar per month) to make it happen. The future of the site is dependent on your contributions. We hope you see the value and hard work that exists in the daily content. Rest assured there are new features that are in development that I think you will enjoy. Thank you so much for your consideration and help. To subscribe click on the secure green box below. Roll weather...TS

HALLOWEEN WINTER STORM UPDATE

 

Outside of some slushy 1-3" snow last night and early today NW of the Illinois River (between there and just SE of the Quad Cities), so far the early winter storm has not caused any major issues. I have seen reports of 3" of snow near Princeton. 1.5" in Kewanee, and 1" around Macomb, all in Illinois).

 

Currently the upper air energy is coming out of the Rockies on its way to the Midwest. A bit of dry air has worked its way in behind the first wave of energy and that is limiting precipitation. You can see that on the satellite. You can also see a deformation band out west that will get organized later today and bring snow back to parts of Iowa, Illinois, Missouri and Wisconsin tonight and Halloween day.

The radar is showing some light snow trying to get going in the western half of Iowa at noon.

This will fill in and turn into the main snow band overnight and early Halloween as it moves east. For now with lots of clouds, its cold with temps. in western Iowa only in the 20s.

Winds are up today with speeds of 10-22 common.

That's causing wind chills in the teens in western Iowa. 20's to near 30 elsewhere.

Getting to the big question of how much snow, here is what I have from the various models.

 

The GFS

The 3k NAM

The 12k NAM

The EURO

The CANADIAN

The official forecast from the NWS

For now I like what the NWS is showing and feel it is a good estimate of what to expect. This is in line with what I was showing last night with one exception. That's the heavy band that looked possible from Quincy to Peoria and the west suburbs of Chicago. The EURO is still showing that potential but due to a messy mix of just plain old rain in those areas, several inches that was projected last night and early today has not materialized. Those areas are back in the 2-6" range as of this posting.

 

The NWS is showing these odds of at least 1" of snow. I would say they are at least 10 to 15% low.

This just in. A winter weather advisory that's been issued for for much of my target area from near and southeast of a line running from west of Dubuque and Cedar Rapids, on to Ottumwa. In the area amounts should range from 2 to 6" with the heaviest near and east of the Mississippi.

As for timing. Most of the snow will fall between 7:00 pm tonight and 3:00 pm Thursday. Much more to come today as things start coming together. Roll weather...TS

 

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