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TUESDAY'S FEATURE POST
Perspective is one of the best ways to measure how unusual something is. I think we can all agree the past week was far from normal in terms of both cold and snow. Try this in for size. Every place on the map that has a blue dot, has had more snow than Anchorage, Alaska going into November. That's right, so far no snow reported in Anchorage and none is in the forecast. What in the wide world of weather is going on!
This is how much snow has fallen across the nation since September 30th. That's impressive.
Snow cover has rapidly increased the past 2-3 weeks and globally now looks like this.
Many places, especially in southern Canada and the U.S. Rockies have above normal snow cover.
Snow cover really enhances cold and Monday night you can see behind another strong polar front temperatures in southern Canada and the NC United States are 15 to 25 degrees colder than last night. That's just one of several strong fronts that will keep temperatures well below normal the next 8 to 10 days.
While Monday will be a quiet, chilly day, there is a little clipper brewing that will bring a narrow band of snow back to parts of the region Tuesday night. The area under the gun includes southern Minnesota and Wisconsin, far northern Iowa and perhaps extreme northern Illinois. There will be a very sharp cut-off to both the northern and southern edge of the snow band. That will make it hard to forecast but there is pretty good agreement in models that HWY 20 is going to be close to the southern extent of the snow band. Here are some of the latest model snowfall projections. The EURO and 3K NAM are furthest north, the GFS furthest south (it's also the snowiest).
The 3k NAM
The 12k NAM
There's a pretty good chance that by morning winter weather advisories will be issued for areas near and north of HWY 20. We have some time for fresh data tomorrow before final forecasts are issued but I don't expect much in the way of change. maybe a little northward shift of 25-30 miles on the GFS.
The other issue on the table is some exceptionally cold temperatures for early November coming Sunday and lasting into early next week. Record lows are possible, especially in any area that has snow on the ground. I could see at least 3 days where highs do not get out of the 20s. Monday, the GFS shows this for highs.
Tuesday morning it shows this for lows. Yes, those are below zero where snow is expected to be on the ground.
Just look at these wind chills Monday morning. Ridiculous!
If this cold comes as advertised, this is a big ticket item. We'll see what new runs bring in coming days. Roll weather...TS