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Hopefully you enjoyed the "mild" weather Saturday because an arctic cold front is on the way. Temperatures Sunday will be running at least ten degrees colder than Saturday.
Temperatures will really start to drop Sunday evening and we'll quickly get below the freezing mark. A band of snow will form behind the front Sunday night...
Snow will continue to fall into Monday morning, ending around midday. There are still some questions in terms of the amount of moisture that will be available for this system and in turn still some uncertainty with snowfall amounts. HOWEVER, there has been some big shifts in the models leading to more agreement Saturday evening. As expected, models have started to lean toward the European solution.
Here's the latest Euro:
The latest Canadian:
The GFS (which has made the biggest change!)
The 12k NAM:
The 3k NAM
An area of 2 to 4 inches is looking likely now with some local 5" amounts possible. The lightest totals appear to be in my far northern counties, especially north of HWY 18. Confidence is growing that most areas will have several inches of snow on the ground by Monday evening. That sets the table for bitter cold - especially by November standards.
Here's Monday's highs:
These readings will be near records for the coldest high temperatures ever on November 11th. Then of course the bottom really drops out Monday night...
Then tack on some wind and there will be subzero wind chills by Tuesday morning:
Then we may set records on Tuesday afternoon with temperatures that remain in the teens:
This will surely be a November to remember. We still need to sort out the location and high end of the snowfall totals and we'll get into that Sunday as the storm moves into range. Updates to come...RK