© 2019 Terry Swails

MODELS BEING STUBBORN WITH SNOWFALL FORECASTS...

November 13, 2019

The 18z suite of models is in and the system for Wednesday evening is still giving models a run for their money. The problems are centered around a narrow band of forcing and snow that's shown developing near or north of HWY 20. All the models except for the EURO have some light accumulations in that part of my area.

 

Unfortunately, the EURO is usually dialed in at this point in the game (24 hours away). That gives me pause as it is usually money in the bank. It has a drier look and that makes sense given the bone dry air that's currently in place. It's also been consistent. On the other hand, the U.S. models have been fairly staunch in their depictions as well. Here's what I have to figure out as far as model snowfall forecasts go.

 

THE GFS

The 3k NAM

The 12k NAM

The EURO

This just might be a case where a compromise is in order until something gives. That said, I'm not budging much from what the EURO shows. The 1" amounts should stay north of a line that runs from just north of Waterloo to roughly Madison. Some 2" totals could make it into far NE Iowa, SE Minnesota and SW Wisconsin. Much heavier amounts will fall across central Wisconsin.

 

South of HWY 20 there could be a dusting of snow down to about HWY 30 before it all dries up. Again, we still have a little time before the flakes fly so anticipate a few tweaks later tonight and Wednesday. The bottom line is this, if the EURO is right this won't amount to much unless you are north of HWY 20. Even there totals should only be in the range of to 1 to 2". That's what I have for you at this hour. Roll weather...TS

 

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