© 2019 Terry Swails

FOR NOW, MORE LIKE NOVEMBER...

November 16, 2019

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SATURDAY'S FEATURE POST:

 

I doubt that anybody is complaining, but temperatures really soared around the Midwest Friday This was a full day ahead of schedule and somewhat surprising due to the negative feedback associated with existing snow cover. In this case temperatures over-performed. Here are the highs reported around Iowa...nearly 60 in the far SW.

Readings all around the region were 5-15 degrees warmer than yesterday and as much as 23 degrees warmer in parts of central Iowa.

For many highs actually were above normal, something rarely seen the past 3 weeks. Here's a look at the Midwest temperature departures for the month of November through the first 14 days. For many November is currently the 2nd coldest on record at the halfway point in the month

The overall pattern the next 5-6 days looks fairly benign as the storm track limits moisture and loses its connection to modified Arctic air. Temperatures are expected to average a bit below normal in my area. Here's the 5 day temperature departures.

Precipitation looks fairly light with the best chances Sunday, especially near and southeast of the Mississippi.

These are the 5 day precipitation departures ending Wednesday.

Significant snowfall the next 5 days should be confined to the northern-most reaches of the Midwest.

Even so, we're still well ahead of schedule with seasonal snow totals looking like this with more than a month to go until winter.

One thing I saw that was interesting and could be big was the MJO forecast out to December 16th on the EURO. At the end of the cycle the EURO shows it going through phase 3 and into 4. From there we have no model guidance but the logical transition would be from 4 into phases 5 and 6. 

These phases are the holy grail of warmth for the MJO during the month of December.

Boy, I hope that does not happen. As I've been saying the EPO has been doing better than the MJO recently and acting as the overall driving teleconnection. If it can remain neutral or negative we might be able to overcome this potential obstacle of limited cold and snow before Christmas. However, if the MJO forecast pans out (a big if) and the EPO pops positive, that's shades of last year and that is a real set-back for winter in much of December. This is the first day I've seen this MJO trend so I'm trying not to panic. I am disturbed and disappointed by it. More later, until then roll weather...TS

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