A significant wave coming out of the southwest U.S. will provide the right ingredients for a healthy November rain later tonight and early Thursday. Most models are showing totals on the order of 1/2 to as much as 1 inch. Here's a sampling.
The 3k NAM
The 12k NAM
The Weather Prediction Center put out this this.
The rain is just now developing to the southwest on radar.
By midnight, simulated radar has it here.
By 6:00am its is quickly advancing northeast.
By noon its entirely out of the area. Winds will switch to the north and temperatures will fall in the afternoon as the cold front advances southeast. Before that happens this is what highs are projected to look like.
By the way, I'm aware there's lots of talk about a storm (or two) Thanksgiving week. Models are all over the board with their solutions so I've been waiting to get a better feel for the trends. I'll have more on that topic in my next post.Until then, roll weather...TS
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WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION
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The essential on-line sites for models, observations, satellite and radar images, and general weather data.
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The GFS, EURO, NAM 3k, NAM 12K, Canadian, HRRR, MJO, ensembles, teleconnections, etc.
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A simulation of the basic process using model output.
BREAK: A 25-30 minute recess to enjoy a catered lunch…
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Thunderstorms, tornadoes, derechoes, and squall lines.
Soundings. What are they and why should I care?
Instability (CAPE) vs (CIN) Critical interaction involving moisture, heating, and forcing.
Uncovering the ingredients of a severe weather set-up.
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Role of SPC vs NWS, and your local TV station regarding the warning process.
Simulated model driven forecast of a severe weather event/tornado outbreak
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The key ingredients required for significant winter storm:
How to forecast the rain snow line.
How to forecast snow totals from QPF
Determining totals from snow ratios.
What to look for at the surface and at upper levels (500 and 850mb)
Model bias and determining the storm track
Simulated model driven forecast of a significant Midwest winter storm
QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION
An open period for attendees to ask questions regarding relevant topics or issues discussed during the day.
Some final words of inspiration from the events headliners
Once again, to reserve a spot or ask questions send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org See you when the bell rings! T. Swails
PLEASE CONSIDER WHAT YOU'RE GETTING...
I hope you are aware of how far ahead of the competition TSwails has been in catching the trends of our early winter weather pattern. It takes a heck of a lot of commitment, passion, and knowledge to do that. This is now my job and that's why I'm asking for a voluntary subscription fee of $12 dollars a year, one dollar a month to keep TSwails going. Together we can create one of the best, most unique, and reliable weather sites in the Midwest. Your contribution of 3 cents a day, allows me to stay free of the corporate world and pour my energy into doing what I do best, forecasting the weather! We hope you see the value and hard work that goes into the site everyday. You support in any way is sincerely appreciated. Thanks and roll weather. To donate click on the secure green box below.