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The last week I've been trying to get a handle on temperature trends heading into the month of December. About the only thing I feel confident about is that I'm not confident in any long term solutions. That said, I do have some thoughts I will share with the qualification that it's nothing more than educated speculation.

Coming right out of the gate I'll start with the EPO (eastern Pacific Oscillation). Both the EURO and GFS ensembles are showing a neutral to positive phase through December 5th.



If you've been following trends here the past month you know that during our record breaking cold and snowy period late October to mid November, the EPO was strongly negative. The move to a positive EPO indicates we've lost the connection to the modified Arctic air that so deeply chilled us. Now we are getting some influence from Pacific air masses and at the very least should keep things more seasonal going into December. I would not be surprised to see a couple periods where temperatures spike above normal when stronger storms track to the northwest.

How long we can hold this trend in place will determine what happens in December. One trend I really dislike as a snow fan is the long range EURO taking the MJO into the warm phases of 2, 3, 4, and perhaps 5 and 6 through December.

Look what you are getting into there fo