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The morning cycle of the models are in and there is general agreement on a disturbance next Tuesday bringing snow to some part of the Midwest. The various solutions are close but the differences in track that exist are important ones for my area. Let's take a look at the GFS track. It's a little less amplified and further south with the surface low.

Now look at the track of the EURO. It's about 125 miles further northwest. That's not much but in this case it is significant for my area as it pushes the snow band about that far northwest as well.

Here's the snowfall forecasts associated with the two models. I also threw in the Canadian for good measure.

The GFS:



The more amplified further north position of the EURO keeps any snow in my area in the NW third instead of the NW half. Again, with the lack of cold air and a deepening system I feel the EURO is the way to lean at this point in the game. We'll see where things go in the next 24 hours.

By the way, if you would like to know the ins and outs of forecasting snow and winter weather, you should consider WEATHER SCHOOL, which I will be presiding over January 25th. We'll get into the hard core nuts and bolts of forecasting in a way that makes it understandable and doable for you. Space is limited and we are about half way to capacity so get off the fence and sign up. Here's all the details! is offering a very special and unique opportunity for you to learn first-hand the ins and outs of weather forecasting with one of the best meteorologists in the country along with his team of expert meteorologists.

That’s right… You want to forecast right along with Terry Swails, well now you can. He’s teaching weather with TSwails newest program called WEATHER SCHOOL. The opening bell rings this January and you can be a member of the very first graduating class. The one-day forecasting seminar for weather enthusiasts will be held at his home in January. It’s not your typical run-of-the-mill school. There will be no tests, but Terry, Rebecca, and Nick will cram your head with so much knowledge, it’ll be spinning like a tornado before the day is over

You want to know the essential online sites to use for models, radar, and the basic weather tools? DONE! You want to understand the structure of models and the role they play? DONE! You want to be able to construct forecasts from the ground up? DONE!

WEATHER SCHOOL will be presented in a seminar-type format where you'll have the ability to ask questions and dig deep. You’ll get the scoop on data acquisition, model analysis, severe weather, and actual forecasting from the big dog himself, T. Swails. With 43 years of experience and an uncanny ability to break the science down, you’ll open the door to forecasting like never before.

Along with the head master T. Swails himself, meteorologists Rebecca Kopelman and Nick Stewart of KGAN TV will be there to lend their knowledge and experience to the discussion. It will be fun, informative, and factual! This is the day for you to see, feel, and experience what it’s like to be in the hot seat of a meteorologist.

The seminar will be held January 25th and will last from noon until 5:00pm. We have limited seating and the cost is $ 99 dollars per person. A catered lunch will be provided. Again..not a lot of seats so reservations with a pre-payment are required. Sorry, no refunds. If there’s enough interest, a second session will be added in early February. To register or get additional information send an email to

GIVE THE GIFT OF WEATHER. This might be the perfect gift for that hard to buy for person this Christmas. Along with a WEATHER SCHOOL admittance voucher, TSwails will send a special holiday greeting to your weather enthusiast if you give the gift of weather with the TSwails touch!



Purpose: To help weather enthusiasts understand the basics of forecasting and apply the knowledge and techniques learned to construct personal forecasts.


The essential on-line sites for models, observations, satellite and radar images, and general weather data.

Session 2: ANALYSIS: