A STORM WITH ALL THE FIXIN'S...
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TUESDAY'S FEATURED POST:
Despite some recent mild weather, the past 30 days have been exceptional from the standpoint of cold, especially in my area. As you will see, the coldest temperatures in North America relative to average have been found in eastern Iowa, NW Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Hooray for us!
During this extreme 30 day period, 4,682 record lows were established.
Additionally, 1,214 snowfall records were generated. Quite a stretch of weather.
During the past week the jet stream re-positioned itself resulting in a much improved pattern. Temperature rebounded and departures have looked like this the past 5 days.
Canada and the polar reaches have seen the most dramatic warming. We've seen our bounce with the jet in this configuration ahead of the coming upper Midwest snowstorm. highs will remain mild until Wednesday morning when the system passes and winds turn northerly.
Most readings in my area Tuesday are shown ending up 10-22 degrees above normal.
You can see why with the surface low cutting northeast across Iowa putting my region in the warm sector
In fact, across the southern half of my area temperatures will keep rising Tuesday night as the low heads for SW Wisconsin. Highs will be met around midnight or a bit later in Illinois. These are the projected midnight temperatures.
Dew points east of the Mississippi may get into the 50s which is pretty moist for late November.
The strong low, deep moisture and mild temperatures will create instability for thunderstorms. These are CAPE values late in the evening. Impressive for night-time hours in late November and sufficient for thunderboomers.
This are projected lightning strikes around 10pm in the evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for severe thunderstorms as far north as southern Iowa and WC Illinois..Even in my counties south of I-80 some of the storms could be capable of marginal severe winds and hail. There's a 5% risk of tornadoes all the way to far SE Iowa. That's slim but still significant for late November.
The flip side of the storm is what's called the cold sector NW of the surface low. Here a full fledged snowstorm is expected to break out Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Winter Storm Warnings are out for all the counties in pink from the NW third of Iowa, the SE half of Minnesota, and NW Wisconsin. It will be a white Thanksgiving up that way!
These are the latest snowfall forecasts as of Monday night for those impacted by the snow
NWS Des Moines.
The NWS Green Bay
Another significant factor all areas will have to deal with is wind late Tuesday night and Wednesday. That combined with snow up north could generate near white out conditions in the open country and very poor travel conditions through Wednesday, the worst late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. More on the topic below.
These are the 10 meter wind gusts forecast by the EURO. Wednesday morning. Many gusts 50 to even 60 mph from eastern Iowa into northern Illinois.
As you would expect, a high wind watch is out for the potential late Tuesday night and Wednesday.
This is one of those storms that has all the Fixin's for a wide variety of weather! Fortunately, conditions will improve over all the Midwest Wednesday and for the most part Thanksgiving day should remain quiet as the next storm gets set to arrive for the weekend. It looks to be mainly a rain make for my area until Sunday when some light snow or flurries could come in on much colder air. I'll have more on round two in coming posts. We need to get this big boy out of here first. Roll weather...TS
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