© 2019 Terry Swails

KIND OF LIKE EATING THE NECK OF THE TURKEY...

November 27, 2019

PLEASE CONSIDER THE VALUE...TSwails.com has been far ahead of the competition in catching and forecasting the trends of our extreme weather the past few weeks. It takes a great deal of commitment, passion, and knowledge to do that. Now that I'm no longer in television, this is my job and that's the reason I'm asking for a voluntary subscription fee of $12 dollars a year, one dollar a month to keep TSwails going. Together we can create one of the best, most unique, and reliable weather sites in the Midwest. Your contribution of 3 cents a day, allows me to stay free of the corporate world and pour my energy into doing what I do best, forecasting the weather! We hope you see the value and hard work that goes into the site everyday. You support in any way is sincerely appreciated. Thanks and roll weather. To donate click on the secure green box below.

WEDNESDAY'S FEATURED POST:

 

A strong low pressure will be lifting NE out of Iowa into Wisconsin Wednesday morning. Depending on where you are in the Midwest, your weather's been influenced by showers, thunderstorms, snow, or wind, (in some cases all of the above). Not very pleasant. Kind of like eating the neck of the Thanksgiving Turkey.

 

Here's what the storm looked like on the satellite Tuesday night. You can see the nose of the jet lifting into Iowa from the southwest. The closed circulation is evident in SW Iowa.

Early Wednesday the surface low is just north of Dubuque. With the storm pulling away strong pressure rises are in progress generating powerful west/northwest winds.

High wind warnings remain in effect for much of my area through the day Wednesday. Some gusts will exceed 50 mph and in a few spots could clip 60! These are some of the 10 meter wind gusts projected by the EURO.

This graphic from the NWS in the Quad Cities shows the wind warning and some of the specifics associated with it. At the very least all of the Midwest will see gusts of at least 40 mph.

You can see there are a wide variety of advisories in effect Tuesday night from tornado watches in yellow to winter storm warnings in pink.

The accumulating snows to the north in NW Iowa and Minnesota will end during the morning and gradually diminish in the afternoon in NW Wisconsin. These are the odds of at least 6" of snow. Travel will be slow and in some cases very difficult in these areas.

Conditions will improve over all the Midwest Wednesday night and Thanksgiving should be a good travel day around much of the Midwest and my immediate area. A little chilly but generally dry around the edges until after sunset.

 

The next system will bring the chance of rain to my area late Friday or Friday night. The showers should continue on a scattered basis into Saturday as a large upper air low works its way east across Iowa. As it advances east colder air will surge across my area Sunday. Eventually the cold pocket associated with the upper air low will reside directly over my area and that is expected to create enough instability for snow showers Sunday. They should be light with little if any accumulation unless you are in the upper Midwest where several inches of powder are possible. This is the total snowfall forecast for system number 2 Saturday and Sunday.

Well that's enough for now as I watch lightning out the window to the west. Small consolation for the snows that will pile up less than 2 hours to my northwest. Close but no cigar! Happy Thanksgiving Eve. Roll weather...TS

 

PEOPLE! Christmas is only a month away. Are you looking for something special for that hard to buy for person? Maybe you just want to treat yourself for being on the nice list! Well, here's an idea that can "give" any weather enthusiast a lifetime of pleasure. It's called WEATHER SCHOOL. What a person experiences here will open up the world of forecasting for years of enjoyment to come. Consider giving the gift of weather. Better hurry, only 18 seats left. You can get all the details below. 

TSwails.com is offering a very special and unique opportunity to learn first-hand the ins and outs of weather forecasting with one of the best meteorologists in the Midwest along with his team of expert meteorologists.

 

That’s right… You want to forecast right along with Terry Swails, well now you can.  He’s teaching weather with TSwails newest program called WEATHER SCHOOL. The opening bell rings this January and you can be a member of the very first graduating class. The one-day forecasting seminar for weather enthusiasts will be held at his home in January. It’s not your typical run-of-the-mill school. There will be no tests, but Terry, Rebecca, and Nick will cram your head with so much knowledge, it’ll be spinning like a tornado before the day is over

 

You want to know the essential online sites to use for models, radar, and the basic weather tools?  DONE!  You want to understand the structure of models and the role they play? DONE!  You want to be able to construct forecasts from the ground up? DONE!

 

WEATHER SCHOOL will be presented in a seminar-type format where you'll have the ability to ask questions and dig deep. You’ll get the scoop on data acquisition, model analysis, severe weather, and actual forecasting from the big dog himself, T. Swails. With 43 years of experience and an uncanny ability to break the science down, you’ll open the door to forecasting like never before.

 

Along with the head master T. Swails himself, meteorologists Rebecca Kopelman and Nick Stewart of KGAN TV will be there to lend their knowledge and experience to the discussion. It will be fun, informative, and factual! This is the day for you to see, feel, and experience what it’s like to be in the hot seat of a meteorologist.

 

The seminar will be held January 25th and will last from noon until 5:00pm. We have limited seating and the cost is $99 dollars per person. A catered lunch will be provided. Again..not a lot of seats so reservations with a pre-payment are required. Sorry, no refunds. If there’s enough interest, a second session will be added in early February. To register or get additional information send an email to carolynswettstone@yahoo.com

 

GIVE THE GIFT OF WEATHER. This might be the perfect gift for that hard to buy for person this Christmas. Along with a WEATHER SCHOOL admittance voucher, TSwails will send a special holiday greeting to your weather enthusiast if you give the gift of weather with the TSwails touch!

 

 

WEATHER SCHOOL AGENDA:

 

WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION

 

Purpose: To help weather enthusiasts understand the basics of forecasting and apply the knowledge and techniques learned to construct personal forecasts.

 

Session 1: DATA ACQUISITION

The essential on-line sites for models, observations, satellite and radar images, and general weather data.

 

Session 2: ANALYSIS:

Determining your objective goals. Short term, intermediate, or long-term. Understanding the process of analysis and its relationship to forecasting.

 

Model options and choices. What to use and when!

The GFS, EURO, NAM 3k, NAM 12K, Canadian, HRRR, MJO, ensembles, teleconnections, etc.

Locating, learning, and knowing what’s essential to make a reliable forecast.

 

The art and science of model interpretation: Using and understanding model output. Its called guidance for a reason!

 

Learn how to analyze key parameters such as:

Surface and upper air data

Vorticity and energy

Precipitation output

Wind and pressure

 

Session 3: MAKING A FORECAST FROM MODEL GUIDANCE

A simulation of the basic process using model output.

 

BREAK: A 25-30 minute recess to enjoy a catered lunch…

 

Session 4: SEVERE WEATHER:

Thunderstorms, tornadoes, derechoes, and squall lines.

Soundings. What are they and why should I care?

Instability (CAPE) vs (CIN) Critical interaction involving moisture, heating, and forcing.

Uncovering the ingredients of a severe weather set-up.

TVS signatures. What to look for on radar.

Role of SPC vs NWS, and your local TV station regarding the warning process.

Simulated model driven forecast of a severe weather event/tornado outbreak

 

Session 5: WINTER STORMS:

The key ingredients required for significant winter storm:

How to forecast the rain snow line.

How to forecast snow totals from QPF

Determining totals from snow ratios.

What to look for at the surface and at upper levels (500 and 850mb)

Model bias and determining the storm track

Simulated model driven forecast of a significant Midwest winter storm

 

QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION

An open period for attendees to ask questions regarding relevant topics or issues discussed during the day.

 

CONCLUSION:

Some final words of inspiration from the events headliners

 

Once again, to reserve a spot or ask questions send an email to carolynswettstone@yahoo.com See you when the bell rings!  Roll weather...T. Swails

 

 

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