NEW THOUGHTS ON MONDAY'S SNOW SYSTEM...

December 13, 2019

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SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST

 

First things first, I do not see any issues with significant precipitation through Sunday. The only concern would be with some patchy freezing drizzle tonight due to weak warm advection ahead of a strong cold front. Not a single model shows any measurable QPF, worst case a trace. Minimal issues.

 

The more significant storm to keep an eye on is due into the Midwest Monday. Models are now coming into better agreement on track but there is some important disagreement on the northern placement of the snow band.The GFS and NAM get the 1" line near or just north of I-80.

 

The Canadian (an outlier in my opinion) is the furthest north with the 1" threshold, showing it SE of a line that runs from Des Moines to Dubuque.

 

The model I prefer is the EURO. It keeps the 1" line down near the Missouri border. That may be a bit too far south but I don't think there will be much accumulation north of HWY 34 which runs from Ottumwa to Burlington. The reason why is a strong cold front that produces falling temperatures Saturday. It will introduce some very dry air that I think will make it hard for the snow to get much further north than what the EURO is showing. Here it is.

There will be a healthy band of snow 3-6" from extreme southern Iowa into Missouri and central Illinois. If the system could deepen a bit that could allow a slight northward shift to about I-80 but I think that is the worst case scenario (1-2" from there south) For now I like what the EURO is selling.

 

For comparison sake here are the other 3 models I'm looking at.The NAM and GFS are the worst case scenario and I think too far north into the dry air. The Canadian GEM seems way off the mark and too far north. Might as well throw it out

 

The GFS

The NAM

The GEM (Canadian)

Here are the temperature meteograms for Davenport and Cedar Rapids through December 21.

 

Davenport

 Cedar Rapids

This product called the winter weather summary is based on the GFS. It has a number of parameters displayed but again it is probably to far north and high with the snow totals. The rest of the data should be good.

 

Davenport

Cedar Rapids

Still some time on the Monday system to get things in order but I don't expect much north of I-80, more likely north of HWY 34. That's all I have for now. I'll keep you up to date on any new trends. Roll weather...TS

 

HERE'S A GREAT GIFT IDEA FOR THE WEATHERMAN IN YOUR HOUSEHOLD

 

WEATHER SCHOOL IS COMING TO TOWN...

 

GIVE SANTA A BREAK! Christmas is less than a month away. Are you looking for something special for that hard to buy for person? Maybe you just want to treat yourself for being on the nice list! Well, here's an idea that can "give" any weather enthusiast a lifetime of pleasure. It's called WEATHER SCHOOL. What a person experiences and learns here will open up the world of forecasting for years of enjoyment to come. Consider giving the gift of weather. Better hurry, only 8 desks still open. You can get all the details below.

 

TSwails.com is offering a very special and unique opportunity to learn first-hand the ins and outs of weather forecasting with one of the best meteorologists in the Midwest along with his team of expert meteorologists.

 

That’s right… You want to forecast right along with Terry Swails, well now you can. He’s teaching weather with TSwails newest program called WEATHER SCHOOL. The opening bell rings this January and you can be a member of the very first graduating class. The one-day forecasting seminar for weather enthusiasts will be held at his home in January. It’s not your typical run-of-the-mill school. There will be no tests, but Terry, Rebecca, and Nick will cram your head with so much knowledge, it’ll be spinning like a tornado before the day is over.

 

You want to know the essential online sites to use for models, radar, and the basic weather tools? DONE! You want to understand the structure of models and the role they play? DONE! You want to be able to construct forecasts from the ground up? DONE!

 

WEATHER SCHOOL will be presented in a seminar-type format where you'll have the ability to ask questions and dig deep. You’ll get the scoop on data acquisition, model analysis, severe weather, and actual forecasting from the big dog himself, T. Swails. With 43 years of experience and an uncanny ability to break the science down, you’ll open the door to forecasting like never before.

 

Along with the head master T. Swails himself, meteorologists Rebecca Kopelman and Nick Stewart of KGAN TV will be there to lend their knowledge and experience to the discussion. It will be fun, informative, and factual! This is the day for you to see, feel, and experience what it’s like to be in the hot seat of a meteorologist.

The seminar will be held January 25th and will last from noon until 5:00pm. We have limited seating and the cost is $99 dollars per person. A catered lunch will be provided. Again..not a lot of seats so reservations with a pre-payment are required. Sorry, no refunds. If there’s enough interest, a second session will be added in early February. To register or get additional information send an email to carolynswettstone@yahoo.com

 

GIVE THE GIFT OF WEATHER. This might be the perfect gift for that hard to buy for person this Christmas. Along with a WEATHER SCHOOL admittance voucher, TSwails will send a special holiday greeting to your weather enthusiast if you give the gift of weather with the TSwails touch!

 

WEATHER SCHOOL AGENDA:

 

WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION

Purpose: To help weather enthusiasts understand the basics of forecasting and apply the knowledge and techniques learned to construct personal forecasts.

 

Session 1: DATA ACQUISITION

The essential on-line sites for models, observations, satellite and radar images, and general weather data.

 

Session 2: ANALYSIS:

Determining your objective goals. Short term, intermediate, or long-term. Understanding the process of analysis and its relationship to forecasting.

Model options and choices. What to use and when!

The GFS, EURO, NAM 3k, NAM 12K, Canadian, HRRR, MJO, ensembles, teleconnections, etc.

Locating, learning, and knowing what’s essential to make a reliable forecast.

The art and science of model interpretation: Using and understanding model output. Its called guidance for a reason!

Learn how to analyze key parameters such as:

Surface and upper air data

Vorticity and energy

Precipitation output

Wind and pressure

 

Session 3: MAKING A FORECAST FROM MODEL GUIDANCE

A simulation of the basic process using model output.

 

BREAK: A 25-30 minute recess to enjoy a catered lunch…

 

Session 4: SEVERE WEATHER:

Thunderstorms, tornadoes, derechoes, and squall lines.

Soundings. What are they and why should I care?

Instability (CAPE) vs (CIN) Critical interaction involving moisture, heating, and forcing.

Uncovering the ingredients of a severe weather set-up.

TVS signatures. What to look for on radar.

Role of SPC vs NWS, and your local TV station regarding the warning process.

Simulated model driven forecast of a severe weather event/tornado outbreak

 

Session 5: WINTER STORMS:

The key ingredients required for significant winter storm:

How to forecast the rain snow line.

How to forecast snow totals from QPF

Determining totals from snow ratios.

What to look for at the surface and at upper levels (500 and 850mb)

Model bias and determining the storm track

Simulated model driven forecast of a significant Midwest winter storm

 

QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION

An open period for attendees to ask questions regarding relevant topics or issues discussed during the day.

 

CONCLUSION:

Some final words of inspiration from the events headliners

Once again, to reserve a spot or ask questions send an email to carolynswettstone@yahoo.com See you when the bell rings! Roll weather...T. Swails

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