TAKING THE PLUNGE...

December 20, 2019

LEARNING HOW TO SKI AT CHESTNUT MOUNTAIN RESORT...EXPERT ADVICE AND EQUIPMENT!

In the video above we get Carolyn and Eden out on the slopes with skies for the first time at Chestnut Mountain. From advice from instructor Bill, to proper clothes and equipment, to the right mind-set, they both tackle the slopes with confidence. Carolyn was told she was a natural and of course had to prove it by going all the way...(to the bottom that is). As she tells it, she only ended up on her own "bottom" once. What a daredevil.

 

LIGHT UP MY SKY

 

Last night the Aurora Borealis (northern lights) paid a visit to parts of the northern hemisphere. They were not visible this far south but in this hi-res satellite image you can see them arching across the skies of Canada in the upper portion of the image. The Great Lakes are visible to the south as well as the many city lights over the eastern half of the U.S.. It's easy to pick out the metro lights of Chicago and Minneapolis

On the ground scenes similar to this were found from Alaska to Norway.and Iceland.

 

Fairbanks:

Iceland:

Norway:

The Aurora Borealis (Northern Lights) and Aurora Australis (Southern Lights) are the result of electrons colliding with the upper reaches of Earth’s atmosphere. (Protons cause faint and diffuse aurora, usually not easily visible to the human eye.) The electrons are energized through acceleration processes in the downwind tail of the magnetosphere and at lower altitudes along auroral field lines. The accelerated electrons follow the magnetic field of Earth down to the Polar Regions where they collide with oxygen and nitrogen atoms and molecules in Earth’s upper atmosphere. In these collisions, the electrons transfer their energy to the atmosphere thus exciting the atoms and molecules to higher energy states. When they relax back down to lower energy states, they release their energy in the form of light. This is similar to how a neon light works

 

Without a doubt the Aurora is one of the coolest phenomenon I've ever witnessed. Right up there with an EF4 tornado. NOAA has a space weather page where they determine the probabilities of a display at various latitudes. Click on the image below to be taken to the space weather page and see your specific chances.

YOU WON'T BEE SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER...

 

There's no doubt you won't be seeing much in the way of weather around the Midwest the next few days. A ridge if high pressure is expected to flex its muscles through Christmas. This is the 500mb flow on Sunday showing the above normal heights that will keep temperatures at above normal levels.

These are the forecast temperature departures on the GFS Christmas Eve day as well as Christmas day.

 

December 24th.

December 25th.

Both days readings are 15-20 degrees above normal leading to highs in the range of 45 to 50 degrees. For those who have forgotten...nearly 2 months ago, the high Halloween was 31, the low 17, with many places seeing an inch of two of snow. Quite a turn around there and one you won't see very often.

 

Here's the 5 day temperature departures for the period December 20-25th. You last minute shoppers should appreciate this!

The first chance for any precipitation doesn't arrive until Christmas Day when some showers are possible, especially towards evening. This is the total precipitation forecast by the EURO through Christmas Day.

The GFS is faster and more aggressive with precipitation bringing some rain in Christmas Eve night. I think it is too fast and too strong and prefer what the EURO is depicting. Here's its total precipitation forecast through Christmas

I guess there's not much to say for now except to enjoy the gift of this nice weather pattern. We've all been good boys and girls. Roll weather...TS

 

WEATHER SCHOOL IS COMING TO TOWN, SPOTS ARE NEARLY TAKEN...

GIVE SANTA A BREAK! Christmas is less than a month away. Are you looking for something special for that hard to buy for person? Maybe you just want to treat yourself for being on the nice list! Well, here's an idea that can "give" any weather enthusiast a lifetime of pleasure. It's called WEATHER SCHOOL. What a person experiences and learns here will open up the world of forecasting for years of enjoyment to come. Consider giving the gift of weather. Better hurry, only 6 desks still open. You can get all the details below....

 

TSwails.com is offering a very special and unique opportunity to learn first-hand the ins and outs of weather forecasting with one of the best meteorologists in the Midwest along with his team of expert meteorologists.

 

That’s right… You want to forecast right along with Terry Swails, well now you can. He’s teaching weather with TSwails newest program called WEATHER SCHOOL. The opening bell rings this January and you can be a member of the very first graduating class. The one-day forecasting seminar for weather enthusiasts will be held at his home in January. It’s not your typical run-of-the-mill school. There will be no tests, but Terry, Rebecca, and Nick will cram your head with so much knowledge, it’ll be spinning like a tornado before the day is over.

 

You want to know the essential online sites to use for models, radar, and the basic weather tools? DONE! You want to understand the structure of models and the role they play? DONE! You want to be able to construct forecasts from the ground up? DONE!

 

WEATHER SCHOOL will be presented in a seminar-type format where you'll have the ability to ask questions and dig deep. You’ll get the scoop on data acquisition, model analysis, severe weather, and actual forecasting from the big dog himself, T. Swails. With 43 years of experience and an uncanny ability to break the science down, you’ll open the door to forecasting like never before.

 

Along with the head master T. Swails himself, meteorologists Rebecca Kopelman and Nick Stewart of KGAN TV will be there to lend their knowledge and experience to the discussion. It will be fun, informative, and factual! This is the day for you to see, feel, and experience what it’s like to be in the hot seat of a meteorologist.

The seminar will be held January 25th and will last from noon until 5:00pm. We have limited seating and the cost is $99 dollars per person. A catered lunch will be provided. Again..not a lot of seats so reservations with a pre-payment are required. Sorry, no refunds. If there’s enough interest, a second session will be added in early February. To register or get additional information send an email to carolynswettstone@yahoo.com

 

GIVE THE GIFT OF WEATHER. This might be the perfect gift for that hard to buy for person this Christmas. Along with a WEATHER SCHOOL admittance voucher, TSwails will send a special holiday greeting to your weather enthusiast if you give the gift of weather with the TSwails touch!

 

WEATHER SCHOOL AGENDA:

 

WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION

Purpose: To help weather enthusiasts understand the basics of forecasting and apply the knowledge and techniques learned to construct personal forecasts.

 

Session 1: DATA ACQUISITION

The essential on-line sites for models, observations, satellite and radar images, and general weather data.

 

Session 2: ANALYSIS:

Determining your objective goals. Short term, intermediate, or long-term. Understanding the process of analysis and its relationship to forecasting.

Model options and choices. What to use and when!

The GFS, EURO, NAM 3k, NAM 12K, Canadian, HRRR, MJO, ensembles, teleconnections, etc.

Locating, learning, and knowing what’s essential to make a reliable forecast.

The art and science of model interpretation: Using and understanding model output. Its called guidance for a reason!

Learn how to analyze key parameters such as:

Surface and upper air data

Vorticity and energy

Precipitation output

Wind and pressure

 

Session 3: MAKING A FORECAST FROM MODEL GUIDANCE

A simulation of the basic process using model output.

 

BREAK: A 25-30 minute recess to enjoy a catered lunch…

 

Session 4: SEVERE WEATHER:

Thunderstorms, tornadoes, derechoes, and squall lines.

Soundings. What are they and why should I care?

Instability (CAPE) vs (CIN) Critical interaction involving moisture, heating, and forcing.

Uncovering the ingredients of a severe weather set-up.

TVS signatures. What to look for on radar.

Role of SPC vs NWS, and your local TV station regarding the warning process.

Simulated model driven forecast of a severe weather event/tornado outbreak

 

Session 5: WINTER STORMS:

The key ingredients required for significant winter storm:

How to forecast the rain snow line.

How to forecast snow totals from QPF

Determining totals from snow ratios.

What to look for at the surface and at upper levels (500 and 850mb)

Model bias and determining the storm track

Simulated model driven forecast of a significant Midwest winter storm

 

QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION

An open period for attendees to ask questions regarding relevant topics or issues discussed during the day.

 

CONCLUSION:

Some final words of inspiration from the events headliners

Once again, to reserve a spot or ask questions send an email to carolynswettstone@yahoo.com See you when the bell rings! Roll weather...T. Swails

 

CONSIDER THE VALUE PLEASE...TSwails.com continues to be a leader in catching and forecasting the trends of our extreme weather pattern the past few weeks. It takes a great deal of commitment, passion, and knowledge to stay on top of the swings. Now that I'm no longer in television, this is my job and that's the reason I'm asking for a voluntary subscription fee of $12 dollars a year, one dollar a month to keep TSwails going. Together we can create one of the best, most unique, and reliable weather sites in the Midwest. Your contribution of 3 cents a day, allows me to stay free of the corporate world and pour my energy into doing what I do best, forecasting the weather! We hope you see the value and hard work that goes into the site everyday. Your support in any way is sincerely appreciated. Thanks and roll weather. To donate click on the secure green box below.

 

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© 2019 Terry Swails