In a holiday week dominated by warmth, there's more to come. A strong winter storm will spin up over western Iowa the next 24 hours sending warm and unseasonable mild air back into the central Midwest. The leading edge of the springlike air will be surging northward Saturday along a warm front. It will take most of the day to get past I-80 so a large temperature contrast is expected from north to south in my area. Here are the highs forecast on the GFS. towards evening, near 40 north to mid 50s far south.
As the storm and warm front continues progressing north Saturday night, so too does the warm air. Rising temperatures are likely with brisk south winds and by Sunday morning the GFS shows all of my area in the 50s with readings near 60 in southeast Iowa and WC Illinois.
As you can see temperatures like that are more than 35 degrees above normal.
Along with the warmth will come plenty of moisture as measured by the dew points that could reach the mid 50s all the way to HWY 30.
That will be the fuel for showers and thunderstorms that will develop Saturday and be around on an occasional basis until the cold front passes from west to east towards daybreak Sunday. Both the EURO and GFS show the potential for up to an inch of rain (at the very least 1/2").
The snowy side of the storm will be significant but far away from where it typically should be with the limited amount of cold air in place.
As is usually the case a storm of this scope will come to an end with wind and colder temperatures. That process gets underway Sunday afternoon with falling readings and by Monday much more seasonal conditions are expected with temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s.
After this models are showing little agreement in the pattern but there are a couple disturbances that could bring precipitation (perhaps some snow). The first involves the northern half of my area (north of I-80) Monday night. It's nothing huge but perhaps an inch or two could fall, especially near and north of HWY 20. This is what the EURO has for snow potential Monday night.
The EURO shows another chance of snow towards the 5th or 6th. The GFS is showing little if anything regarding development with that system. Thus, confidence is low after New Years.
At any rate, there are lots of tentacles to the forecast and once we get through the weekend rain maker we'll dial in on what's to come. Roll weather...TS
A FEW WEATHER SCHOOL SPOTS STILL AVAILABLE...
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The seminar will be held January 25th and will last from noon until 5:00pm. We have limited seating and the cost is $99 dollars per person. A catered lunch will be provided. Again..not a lot of seats so reservations with a pre-payment are required. Sorry, no refunds. If there’s enough interest, a second session will be added in early February. To register or get additional information send an email to email@example.com
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WEATHER SCHOOL AGENDA:
WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION
Purpose: To help weather enthusiasts understand the basics of forecasting and apply the knowledge and techniques learned to construct personal forecasts.
Session 1: DATA ACQUISITION
The essential on-line sites for models, observations, satellite and radar images, and general weather data.
Session 2: ANALYSIS:
Determining your objective goals. Short term, intermediate, or long-term. Understanding the process of analysis and its relationship to forecasting.
Model options and choices. What to use and when!
The GFS, EURO, NAM 3k, NAM 12K, Canadian, HRRR, MJO, ensembles, teleconnections, etc.
Locating, learning, and knowing what’s essential to make a reliable forecast.
The art and science of model interpretation: Using and understanding model output. Its called guidance for a reason!
Learn how to analyze key parameters such as:
Surface and upper air data
Vorticity and energy
Wind and pressure
Session 3: MAKING A FORECAST FROM MODEL GUIDANCE
A simulation of the basic process using model output.
BREAK: A 25-30 minute recess to enjoy a catered lunch…
Session 4: SEVERE WEATHER:
Thunderstorms, tornadoes, derechoes, and squall lines.
Soundings. What are they and why should I care?
Instability (CAPE) vs (CIN) Critical interaction involving moisture, heating, and forcing.
Uncovering the ingredients of a severe weather set-up.
TVS signatures. What to look for on radar.
Role of SPC vs NWS, and your local TV station regarding the warning process.
Simulated model driven forecast of a severe weather event/tornado outbreak
Session 5: WINTER STORMS:
The key ingredients required for significant winter storm:
How to forecast the rain snow line.
How to forecast snow totals from QPF
Determining totals from snow ratios.
What to look for at the surface and at upper levels (500 and 850mb)
Model bias and determining the storm track
Simulated model driven forecast of a significant Midwest winter storm
QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION
An open period for attendees to ask questions regarding relevant topics or issues discussed during the day.
Some final words of inspiration from the events headliners
Once again, to reserve a spot or ask questions send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org See you when the bell rings! Roll weather...T. Swails