IF IT WEREN'T FOR BAD LUCK, I'D HAVE NO LUCK AT ALL...
Well, for some it was a snowy Friday night, for others not so much. An upper air disturbance that rolled southeast kicked up some heavy snows in NC Iowa late Friday. As the disturbance moved southeast its snows dried up and for much of my area the event was nothing more than a sloppy mess with most accumulations on grassy surfaces. Here's the snow reported Friday night at 1:05 am thanks to the Iowa mesonet. Almost 9" measured just NE of Fort Dodge, Iowa (100 miles to my northwest). Reminds me of a song they sang on and old TV show called HEE HAW, If it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all. Close but no cigar!
Models had indicated some of the more significant snows of 1-3+" would slide southeast across my area. It didn't happen as the snow hit a wall and called it a night. I don't know the reason why but I do know it's pretty rare to see accumulations go from 9" to 1" in less than 50 miles. I am humbled again.
Going forward a nice warm-up is again indicated for the end of the weekend as highs head for the 40s on Sunday after a chilly seasonal day Saturday.
That brings us to a crossroads regarding temperatures through mid-January (the coldest time of the year). As many of you know by now I am a big believer in teleconnections for long term trends. One that I put a lot of stock in during the winter is the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation). It's driven by convection and pressure patterns in the tropical Pacific. There are 8 phases and about half are warm and the other cold during the winter months. The holy grail of cold this time of year are phases 8, 1, and 2.
On the flip side, phases 4,5, and 6 are notable for unseasonal warmth. Here are the temperature analogs for those phases in January. A lot a red over the eastern 2/3rds of the nation.
Look what the EURO, THE GEFS, and the CFSv2 are forecasting the MJO cycle to go through now to January 17th (follow the dotted green lines). That sends us through the heart of 4, 5, and 6. Crap!
THE EURO
The GEFS
The CFSv2
That my friends is not the way to get any sustained cold air into the Midwest. The fact the EPO is also projected to be positive is another big strike against cold.
As you would expect with trends like that, model guidance is quite mild the next 15 days showing this for temperature departures day 10-15. Sub-zero cold is off the table, above normal temperatures are definitely on it!
There are some signs the cold will press towards the end of January with the day 25-30 departures showing the warmth gradually getting undercut by the cold from the northwest.
The way things have been going, I'll believe it when I see it. That's a wrap for me. Until next time roll weather...TS
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