BREAKING THE CAMEL'S BACK...
Well, here it is Wednesday, January 8th and I have not shoveled one scoop of snow. When's the last time I did that? Mmmmm, last year comes to mind.Yup, I checked the records and it wasn't until January 12th of 2019 that I got the back breaker out and pushed about 4" off the driveway.
Interestingly enough December 2018 was exceptionally mild with little snow, much like this year. In fact, the average temperature last December was 6 degrees above normal, we all thought that was great until this year when we came in 7 degrees above the average.
Going back a little further, November of last year was 6.2 below normal and this year it ended up 5.5 below average. So after a cold November we went to a mild December and that's the trend we're experiencing to this very day. Some very interesting correlations showing up. Could it be that last winter is an analog for where this one is headed? If so there is trouble ahead...Read on.
As I've pointed out, last winter was more than friendly until that first storm came calling in on January 12th. That was followed by 18 winter storms, more than 50 inches of snow, and an all-time record low of 30 below before spring finally came to call. If you haven't figured it out by now, I'm going somewhere with these comparisons and it might not make you happy if winter is not your thing.
What could get the ball rolling again is the potential for a snow this weekend, January 11th. That's only 1 day removed from when I did my first shoveling last year. That my friends could be the straw that breaks the camel's back regarding the return of winter. Why do I say that? Look at what the GFS is showing for snow the next 16 days.
The EURO EPS has this for the next 15 days. The 2 models are unusually close.
By January 23, the GFS has the 500mb flow pouring in from the Arctic.
These are the temperature departures January 23rd. 30 below normal at the coldest time of the year is never good. Let's hope that doesn't happen