In the past 12 hours weather models have been showing less phasing with the weather system that's entering the Midwest. That means less intensity and a further east track which impacts snow totals and their placement. Also, related to that issue is a warm layer of air aloft hanging tough over SE Iowa and all but far NW Illinois through tonight. It's known as an inversion.
These critical factors imply many areas tonight will experience either rain, freezing rain, or sleet . Only the far northwest will see a start as snow or a change over to snow. Accumulations of an inch of two are possible NW of a line from roughly Cedar Rapids to Dubuque. Parts of EC and SE Iowa that do go over to freezing rain and sleet could see significant accumulations. Hopefully, recent warm weather has allowed ground temperatures to be warm enough to reduce problems on treated roads.
This is the projected snow tonight.
This are the projected ice and sleet accumulations tonight.
This wave of energy is gone by morning and there could be a brief lull early Saturday and then a band of snow develops and moves north into most areas by late morning or early afternoon. Most of the snow accumulations from the storm will come in this wave and 2-5" seems likely, some isolated 6" reports are possible. Little if any snow is expected in NE Iowa, especially as you head northwest of HWY 20
These are total snowfall forecasts from several models. I think they show the proper trends now.
The 3k NAM
The 12K NAM
The storm should end from west to east across my area between 9:00pm and Midnight. That's all I have time for now. Roll weather....TS
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WEATHER SCHOOL AGENDA:
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How to forecast snow totals from QPF
Determining totals from snow ratios.
What to look for at the surface and at upper levels (500 and 850mb)
Model bias and determining the storm track
Simulated model driven forecast of a significant Midwest winter storm
QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION
An open period for attendees to ask questions regarding relevant topics or issues discussed during the day.
Some final words of inspiration from the events headliners
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