The 18z (late afternoon) model runs are all in and I'm passing them along. All but the GFS have colder thermal profiles. If that holds most of the icing will be from roughly HWY 30 south, especially I-80 south. All areas will see snow though before the transition in the south sometime Friday evening.
I think totals from approximately I-80 south will be in the 2-4" category (heaviest near I-80) with the potential of up to 1/4" of ice. North of I-80 we are looking at 4-6" totals, perhaps a few 7 or 8" amounts where snow ratios will be higher. Some ice totals of 1/10" between I-80 up to near HWY 30
Speaking of snow ratios. I used snowfall forecasts with higher ratios built in (Kuchera method) because that will be the case for at least 50 percent of the event in most areas. The standard 10:1 ratios are 1-2" lower. So, here is what I have for model output. These are not forecasts, just the range of options available to make forecasts from. For a number of reasons, its thermal parameters and total precipitation totals to name two, I like the EURO best.
The 12K NAM...too high I think.
The SREF model means
The 3k NAM
The EURO shows this for ice potential.
Here's where the warnings and advisories are in effect.
The fun begins around noon Friday. I will have several more updates in by then so stay tuned. Roll weather...TS
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