ANOTHER THREAT OF SNOW, HERE'S WHAT WE KNOW...
This Valentines Day weekend you will "love" the President's Day specials going on at Chestnut Mountain Resort in Galena. There's something for everybody and that includes plenty of snow. There's currently a 42-68" base and with the potential for more natural snow on the way mid-week, there's never been a better time to plan a trip to the Midwest's Premier Year Round Resort.
TUESDAY'S FEATURE POST
Well, if at first you don't succeed, try try again. That's the theme the next couple days as another storm attempts to bring snow to the Midwest. The last one stayed mainly to the north. This one takes a much further track to the south and this time it's the SE 2/3rds of my area that stands the best chance of getting flaky. Most of the accumulations are likely Wednesday night although snow could kick in as early as mid-afternoon in the south.
As many of you know, this winter has been a tough one for models (and forecasters like me who use them)..Phasing has been a real issue and on several occasions models have shown it happening only to back off as the event approached. For that very reason I'm not counting any snowflakes until they're hatched. I'm taking nothing for granted.
Here are what the latest models are showing for raw snowfall accumulations. While the US models have shifted north the latest EURO has trended south (after 2 runs further north). Again less phasing is most likely the culprit. It really lowers confidence and is incredibly frustrating. Again, this is the data that all forecasters look at to make their forecasts. Just know THIS IS VERY PRELIMINARY and we are far from having precise numbers. If for some reason the track goes further south tomorrow some of the snow goes with it. That could lead to lower amounts, especially in my NW counties.Time will hopefully answer the doubts later tomorrow.
The GFS...I doubt it.
The NAM 12k
The NAM 3k