© 2019 Terry Swails

MIXED BAG MONDAY....

February 17, 2020

A storm system will move into the Midwest Monday and bring a mixed bag of precipitation. Of course any time we're discussing different precipitation types the forecast gets complicated. 

The National Weather Service has issued Winter Weather Advisories (in purple) where the heaviest snow is expected.

 Here's the snow forecast from the National Weather Service in La Crosse (and we'll dive into the model numbers down below)

 So here's the set up. A storm is going to cut across Iowa and bring in warmer air on the south side, while keeping things cold up north. High temperatures Monday look like this:

 In the mid levels of the atmosphere we also see warmer air moving in (temperatures above zero degrees Celsius). Temperatures at this level need to be at zero or below for snow to happen.

 So it's no surprise we end up with a mixed bag... like this:

Monday mid-morning:

 Monday afternoon:

 There will likely be an area (around Highway 20) of a wintry mix (sleet/freezing rain) and then a changeover to all rain in the south with snow in the north. Ice accumulations will likely be minor. The storm exits late Monday night into Tuesday morning. 

Here's a look at the snowfall totals on the European:

 

 GFS:

 NAM:

 As you can see, there's still a lot of spread among the models in terms of exactly where the heaviest snow falls and exactly how much. The temperature issues (of being close to the freezing mark) are likely leading to a lot of the problems.

I'm leaning toward a solution between the GFS and the European. I think the Euro is a tad too far south (having some issues resolving ice versus snow). But we'll have to keep a close eye on that rain/snow line. If dynamics take over and start cooling things down we could see a further south solution (like the euro). Because this storm isn't particularly strong I don't see this happening at the moment.

What I am certain of is the temperatures getting colder Tuesday behind this storm:

 Get ready for a little bit of everything Monday!

 

RK

 

 

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